Global warming: Prevent poles from melting

A. Such is our dependence on fossil fuels, and such the volume of carbon dioxide we have already released into the atmosphere, that most climate scientists agree that significant global warming is now inevitable - the best we can hope to do is keep it at a reasonable level, and even that going to be an uphill task. At present, the only serious option on the table for doing this is cutting back on our carbon emissions, but a few countries are making major strides in this regard, the majority are having great difficulty even stemming the rate of increase, let alone reversing Consequently, an increasing number of scientists are beginning to explore the alternatives. They under the banner of geoengineering - generally defined as the intentional large-scale manipulation of the environment.

B. Geoengineering has been shown to work, at least on a small, localised scale, for decades. May Day parades in Moscow have taken place under clear blue skies, aircraft having deposited dry ice, silver iodide (m $1) and cement powder to disperse clouds. Many of the schemes now suggested look to do the opposite, and reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the planet. One scheme focuses on achieving a general cooling of the Earth and involves the concept of releasing aerosol sprays into the stratosphere above the Arctic to create clouds of sulphur dioxide, which would, in turn, lead to a global dimming. The idea is modelled on historical volcanic explosions, such as that of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991; which led to a short-term cooling of global temperatures by 0.5°c. The aerosols could be delivered by artillery, high-flying aircraft or balloons.

C. Instead of concentrating on global cooling, other schemes look specifically at reversing the melting at the poles. One idea is to bolster an ice cap by spraying it with water. Using pumps to carry water from below the sea ice, the spray would come out as snow or ice particles, producing thicker sea ice with a higher albedo (the ratio of sunlight reflected from a surface) to reflect summer radiation. Scientists have also scrutinised whether it is possible to block iceflow in Greenland with cables which have been reinforced, preventing icebergs from moving into the sea. Veil Albert Kallio, a Finnish scientist, says that such an idea is impractical, because the force of the ice would ultimately snap the cables and rapidly release a large quantity of frozen ice into the sea. However, Kallio believes that the sort of cables used in suspension bridges could potentially be used to divert, rather than halt, the southward movement of ice from Spitsbergen. It would stop the ice moving south, and local currents would see them float northwards' he says.

D. A number of geoengineering ideas are currently being examined in the Russian Arctic. These include planting millions of birch trees: the thinking, according to Kallio, is that their white bark would increase the amount of reflected sunlight. The loss of their leaves in winter would also enable the snow to reflect radiation. In contrast, the native evergreen pines tend to shade the snow and absorb radiation. Using ice-breaking vessels to deliberately break up and scatter coastal sea ice in both Arctic and Antarctic waters in their respective autumns, and diverting Russian rivers to increase cold-water flow to ice-forming areas, could also be used to slow down warming, Kallio says. 1 You would need the wind to blow the right way, but in the right conditions, by letting ice float free and head north, you would enhance ice growth.'

E. But will such ideas ever be implemented? The major counter-arguments to geoengineering schemes are, first, that they are a 'cop-out' that allow US to continue living the way we do, rather than reducing carbon emissions; and, second, even if they do work, would the side- effects outweigh the advantages? Then there's the daunting prospect of upkeep and repair of any scheme as well as the consequences of a technical failure. 'I think all of US agree that if we were to end geoengineering on a given day, then the planet would return to its pre-engineered condition very rapidly, and probably within 10 to 20 years' says Dr Phil Rasch, chief scientist for climate change at the US-based Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. That's certainly something to worry about. I would consider geoengineering as a strategy to employ only we manage the conversion to a non-fossil- fuel economy. 'The risk with geoengineering projects is that you can "overshoot",' says Dr Dan hunt, from the University of Bristol. 'You may bring global temperatures back to pre-industrial levels, but the risk is that the poles will still be warmer than they should be and the tropics be cooler than before industrialization.'

F. The main reason why geoengineering is countenanced by the mainstream scientific community is that most researchers have little faith in the of politicians to agree - and then bring in the necessary carbon cuts. Even leading conservation organisations believe the subject worth exploring. As Dr Martin Sommerkorn, a climate change advisor says.' But human-induced climate change has brought humanity to a position where it important not to exclude thinking thoroughly about this topic and its possibilities despite the potential drawbacks. If, over the coming years, the science US about an ever-increased climate sensitivity of the planet and this isn't unrealistic - then we may be best served by not having to start our thinking from scratch.

Questions 14-18

Reading Passage 2 has six paragraphs, A-F

Which paragraph contains the following information?

Write the correct letter, A-F, in boxes 14-18 on your answer sheet You may use any letter more than once.

14 the existence of geoengineering projects distracting from the real task of changing the way we live

15 circumstances in which geoengineering has demonstrated success

16 Frustrating maintenance problems associated with geoengineering projects

17 support for geoengineering being due to a lack of confidence in governments

18 more success in fighting climate change in some parts of the world than others

Questions 19-23

Complete the summary below.

Choose NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS from the passage for each answer. Write your answers in boxes 19-23 on your answer sheet.

Geoengineering projects

A range of geoengineering ideas has been put forward, which aim either to prevent the melting of the ice caps or to stop the general rise in global temperatures. One scheme to discourage the melting of ice and snow involves introducing ……….19.......to the Arctic because of their colour. The build-up of ice could be encouraged by dispersing ice along the coasts using special ships and changing the direction of some.........20.......but this scheme is dependent on certain weather conditions. Another way of increasing the amount of ice involves using.........21....... to bring water to the surface. A scheme to stop ice moving would apply.........22..........but this method is more likely to be successful in preventing the ice from travelling in one direction rather than stopping it altogether. A suggestion for cooling global temperatures is based on what has happened in the past after........23...........and it involves creating clouds of gas.

Questions 24-26

Look at the following people (Questions 24-26) and the list of opinions below. Match each person with the correct opinion, A-E.

Write the correct letter, A-E, in boxes 24-26 on your answer sheet.

24 Phil Rasch

25 DanLunt

26 Martin Sommerkorn

List of opinions

A. The problems of geoengineering shouldn’t mean that ideas are not seriously considered.

B. Some geoengineering projects are more likely to succeed than others, 

C. Geoengineering only offers a short-term relief.

D. A positive outcome of geoengineering may have a negative consequence elsewhere.

E. Most geoengineering projects aren’t clear in what they are aiming at.

Section 3

Sunset for the Oil Business

The world is about to run out of oil. Or perhaps not. It depends whom you believe...

A. Members of the Department Analysis Centre (ODAC) recently met in London and presented technical data that support their grim forecast that the world is perilously close to running out of oil. Leading lights of this moment, including the geologists Colin Campbell, rejected rival views presented by American geological survey and the international energy agency that contradicted their findings. Dr. Campbell even decried the amazing display of ignorance, denial and obfuscation by government, industry and academics on this topic.

B. So is the oil really running out? The answer is easy: Yes. Nobody seriously disputes the notion that oil is, for all practical purposes, a non-renewable resource that will run out some day, be that years or decades away. The harder question is determining when precisely oil will begin to get scarce. And answering that question involves scaling Hubbert’s peak.

C. M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist of legendary status among depletion experts, forecast in 1956 that oil production in the United States would peak in the early 1970s and then slowly decline, in something resembling a bell-shaped curve. At the time, his forecast was controversial, and many rubbished it. After 1970, however, empirical evidence proved him correct: oil production in America did indeed peak and has been in decline ever since.

D. Dr Hubbert's analysis drew on the observation that oil production in a new area typically rises quickly at first, as the easiest and cheapest reserves are tapped. Over time, reservoirs age and go into decline, and so lifting oil becomes more expensive. Oil from that area then becomes less competitive in relation to other fuels, or to oil from other areas. As a result, production slows down and usually tapers off and declines. That, he argued, made for a bell-shaped curve.

E. His successful prediction has emboldened a new generation of geologists to apply his methodology on a global scale. Chief among them are the experts at ODAC, who worry that the global peak in production will come in the next decade. Dr Campbell used to argue that the peak should have come already; he now thinks it is just round the comer. A heavyweight has now joined this gloomy chorus. Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton University argues in a lively new book (“The View from Hubbert's Peak”) that global oil production could peak as soon as 2004.

F. That sharply contradicts mainstream thinking. America’s Geological Survey prepared an exhaustive study of oil depletion last year (in part to rebut Dr Campbell’s arguments) that put the peak of production some decades off. The IEA has just weighed in with its new “World Energy Outlook”, which foresees enough oil to comfortably meet demand to 2020 from remaining reserves. René Dahan, one of ExxonMobil's top managers, goes further: with an assurance characteristic of the world's largest energy company, he insists that the world will be awash in oil for another 70 years.

G. Who is right? In making sense of these wildly opposing views, it is useful to look back at the pitiful history of oil forecasting. Doomsters have been predicting dry wells since the 1970s, but so far the oil is still gushing. Nearly all the predictions for 2000 made after the 1970s oil shocks were far too pessimistic. America's Department of Energy thought that oil would reach $150 a barrel (at 2000 prices); even Exxon predicted a price of $100.

H. Michael Lynch of DRI-WEFA, an economic consultancy, is one of the few oil forecasters who has got things generally right. In a new paper, Dr Lynch analyses those historical forecasts. He finds evidence of both bias and recurring errors, which suggests that methodological mistakes (rather than just poor data) were the problem. In particular, he faults forecasters who used Hubbert-style analysis for relying on fixed estimates of how much “ultimately recoverable” oil there really is below ground, in the industry's jargon: that figure, he insists, is actually a dynamic one, as improvements in infrastructure, knowledge and technology raise the amount of oil which is recoverable.

I. That points to what will probably determine whether the pessimists or the optimists are right: technological innovation. The first camp tends to be dismissive of claims of forthcoming technological revolutions in such areas as deep-water drilling and enhanced recovery. Dr Deffeyes captures this end-of-technology mindset well. He argues that because the industry has already spent billions on technology development, it makes it difficult to ask today for new technology, as most of the wheels have already been invented.

J. Yet techno-optimists argue that the technological revolution in oil has only just begun. Average recovery rates (how much of the known oil in a reservoir can actually be brought to the surface) are still only around 30-35%. Industry optimists believe that new techniques on the drawing board today could lift that figure to 50-60% within a decade.

K. Given the industry's astonishing track record of innovation, it may be foolish to bet against it. That is the result of adversity: the nationalisations of the 1970s forced Big Oil to develop reserves in expensive, inaccessible places such as the North Sea and Alaska, undermining Dr Hubbert's assumption that cheap reserves are developed first. The resulting upstream investments have driven down the cost of finding and developing wells over the last two decades from over $20 a barrel to around $6 a barrel. The cost of producing oil has fallen by half, to under $4 a barrel.

L. Such miracles will not come cheap, however, since much of the world's oil is now produced in ageing fields that are rapidly declining. The IEA concludes that global oil production need not peak in the next two decades if the necessary investments are made. So how much is necessary? If oil companies are to replace the output lost at those ageing fields and meet the world's ever-rising demand for oil, the agency reckons they must invest $1 trillion in non-OPEC countries over the next decade alone. That's quite a figure.

Question 27-31

Do the following statements agree with the claims of the writer in Reading Passage 3 In boxes 27-31 on your answer sheet, write

YES	if the statement agrees with the information
NO	if the statement contradicts the information
NOT GIVEN	if there is no information on this

27 Hubbert has a high-profile reputation amongst ODAC members.

28 Oil is likely to last longer than some other energy sources.

29 The majority of geologists believe that oil will start to run out some time this decade.

30 Over 50 percent of the oil we know about is currently being recovered.

31 History has shown that some of Hubbet's principles were mistaken.

Question 32-35

Complete the notes below

Choose ONE WORD ONLYfrom the passage for each answer.

Write your answers in boxes 32-35 on your answer sheet.

Many people believed Hubbert's theory was 32______when it was originally presented. 

The recovery of the oil gets more 34_________as the reservoir gets older 

 

Questions 36-40

Look at the following statements (questions 36-40) and the of people below.

Match each statement with correct person, A-E.

Write the correct letter, A-E in boxes 36-40 on your answer sheet.

NB: You may use any letter more than once.

36 has found fault in geological research procedure

37 has provided the longest-range forecast regarding oil supply

38 has convinced others that oil production will follow a particular model

39 has accused fellow scientists of refusing to see the truth

40 has expressed doubt over whether improved methods of extracting oil are possible.

List of People

A Colin Campbell

B M. King Hubbert

c Kenneth Deffeyes

D Rene Dahan

E Michael Lynch

 

Reading Test 25

Section 1

Build a Medieval Castle

A. Michel Guyot, owner and restorer of Saint Fargeau castle in France, first had the idea of building a 13th-century style fortress following the discovery that the 15th-century red bricks of his castle obscured the stone walls of a much older stronghold. His dream was to build a castle just as it would have been in the Middle Ages, an ầttp://w«bo.com/iclti9 idea which some found mildly amusing and others dismissed as outright folly. However, Maryline Martin - project director - was inspired by the exciting potential for the venture to regenerate the region. It took several months to bring together and mobilise all the various different partners: architects, archaeologists and financial backers. A site in the heart of Guédelon forest was found: a site which offered not only all the resources required for building a castle - a stone quarry, an oak forest and a water supply - but in sufficient quantities to satisfy the demands of this gigantic site. The first team started work and on June 20th 1997 the first stone was laid.

B. Unlike any other present-day building site, Michel Guyot's purpose is clear, he warmly welcomes members of the public to participate. The workers' role is to demonstrate and explain, to a wide audience, the skills of our forefathers. Stone quarrying, the building of vaulted ceilings, the blacksmith's work and the raising of roof timbers are just some of the activities which visitors can witness during a visit to Guédelon. The workers are always on hand to talk about their craft and the progress of the castle. Each year 60,000 children visit Guédelon with their schools. The site is an excellent educational resource, bringing to life the history of the Middle Ages. Guided tours are tailored to the school curriculum and according to age groups: activity trails for primary school children and interactive guided tours for secondary school children. Pupils of all ages have the opportunity to follow in the footsteps of medieval stonemasons by taking part in a stonecarving workshop or discover the secrets of the medieval master-builders at the geometry workshop.

A. Workers in the Burgundy region of France are building a 13th century castle. They’re not restoring an old castle. They’re actually building a new old castle. See the builders are constructing it from scratch. The craftsmen have been working for nearly ten years now but they’re not even halfway done yet. That’s because they’re using only medieval tools and techniques. The World’s Gerry Hadden takes US to the site of what will be the Guedelon Castle. Another reason said by Jean Francois, a member of Guedelon stone cutter’s guild, for eight hours a day he bangs on a 13th century chisel with a 13th century iron mallet.

D. The progress of construction has to give way to tourists side for their visits. The visitors from 2010, however unsightly they may be, are vital to the project. The initial funding came not from pillaging the local peasantry but from regional councils, the European Union and large companies. For the last 10 years, Guédelon, 100 miles southeast of Paris, has funded itself from its entrance fees. Last year it had a record 300,000 visitors, who paid almost?2.5m, making it the second most-visited site in Burgundy. The most-visited site was the Hospice de Beaune, a beautiful 15th-century almshouse built 600 years before, or, if you prefer, 200 years "after”, Guédelon.

E. limestone is found in the construction of various local buildings, from the great and prestigious edifice of Ratilly castle to the more modest poyaudines houses. This stone contains 30-40% iron oxide; this can make it extremely hard to extract and dress. Having studied the block in order to determine and anticipate the natural fault lines of the stone, the quarrymen first carve a series of rectilinear holes into the block. Iron wedges are then hammered into this line of holes. The shockwaves produced by the quarrymen’s sledgehammers cause the stone to split along a straight line. The highest quality blocks are dressed to produce lintels, voussoirs, corbels, ashlars etc. The medium quality blocks are roughly shaped by the stonecutters and used on the uncoursed curtain walls, and as facing stones on the castle's inner walls. There are water-filled clay pits in the forest. Clay is taken from these pits, cleaned and pugged. It is then shaped in wooden moulds to form bricks. After the bricks have been left to air-dry, they are fired in a woodfired kiln for about 12 hours, at roughly 1000°c.

F. The mortar is the "glue" used to bind the castle's stones. It is made up of precise doses of lime, sand and water. The people working there wear the tunics, skirts and headgear that they might have worn then, but they wear these over jeans and shoes with reinforced toes. They mix their mortar primarily as they would have done then, using sand they dig themselves, but they are not allowed to use the extremely effective hot lime from medieval days, because of its toxicity, and so they add a modem chemical ingredient instead, to achieve the same effect. Workers in the Mid Age obviously were unaware of it and some died earlier by inhaling toxic gas. And so, we met many wonderful people who do not pretend to be anything but modem human beings practicing an old technique and finding out what it would have felt like, as much as possible, to do it with only the resources of an older time.

G. We also learned that even if there is a straight lintel across a doorway, you will usually find an arch of stones built into the wall differently. Because of the physics of an arch, which channels the weight above it down into whatever is supporting it at each side instead of pressing down in the middle, this helps to take a lot of the weight off of the lintel itself, whether it is free standing or buried in the wall against the impact of warfare. The arch is the strongest element for spanning space in stone architecture. This is why, in ancient ruins, you will often find the entire wall missing, and the arched windows and doorways still standing, in beautiful patterns against the sky.

 

Questions 1-4

Do the following statements agree with the information given in Reading Passage 1? In boxes 1-4 on your answer sheet, write

TRUE	if the Statement is true
FALSE	if the statement is false
NOT GIVEN	if the information is not given in the passage

1 The French people would not abandon his idea in favor of realistic one.

2 One aim of the castle is to show the ancestral achievement to public.

3 Short lifespan of workers was due to overdue heating.

4 stones were laid not in a straight line arrangement to avoid damaging or collapsing.

Questions 5-10

Summary

Complete the following summary of the paragraphs of Reading Passage, using A-L from the following options for each answer. Write your answers in boxes 5-10 on your answer sheet.

Limestone Processing:

 

When____5____found suitable block, they began to cut lines of____6_____ into it. ____7_____were used and knocked into and generated shockwaves to make stone____8_____. Different qualities of blocks would be used in different place of castle. On the other hand, ______9_____were shaped from clay in a mould and went through a process of_____10______ for about 12 hours.

A metal vedge

B hammer handle

C lift

D Masons

E patterns

F heating

G bricks

H wood

I experts

J split

K walls

L holes

Questions 11-13

Choose three correct letters, A-F.

Write your answers in boxes 11-13 on your answer sheet.

Why does the castle building project last 10 years for just half progress?

A. They lack of enough funds 

B. Guedelon castle needs a time-consuming design

C. Workers obeyed modem working hours

D. Their progress were delayed by unpredictable weather

E. Guedelon castle need to receive valuable visitors

F. They used old techniques and skills

G. Stone processing need more labour and time

 

Section 2