Big Fall in EU Economic Growth

The European Commission yesterday reported a sharp downturn in economic growth in the European Union, but insisted that a significant number of its 25 members could still hope for a better future.

The Commission has slashed its growth projections for the this year by more than I percentage point to 1.5 percent. It projects future growth of 2.4 per cent, or half a percentage point down on its previous estimate, due to general world slump.

But Mr Yves-Thibault de Silguy, the monetary affairs commissioner, insisted that this gloomy outlook did not dent prospects for establishing a single currency. "We consider it realistic, even certain he said.

Although the growth projections are viewed as realistic by financial analysts, the budget deficit projections were yesterday regarded with scepticism by both economists and some diplomats.

After presenting the economic forecast, Mr de Silguy described the documents as a " two-toned report – grey for growth for now, but rosy – for economic convergence in future."

Mr de Silguy said Germany, France, the Netherlands and Finland were expected to join Denmark, Ireland and Luxembourg in successfully cutting their budget deficits below 3 percent of GDP.

Austria and Sweden were expected to come very close, while Belgium, Spain, Portugal and the UK could be within 3/4 of a percentage point of the benchmark.

The German chancellor, who visited the Commission shortly before the report was issued, said he opposed any relaxation of criteria – covering debt, deficits, inflation, and exchange rate stability.

"I'm strongly against changing the convergence criteria," he said. "Without these strict yardsticks, the efforts at economic consolidation will not be successful." However, the chancellor stopped well short of endorsing the Commission's optimistic forecast that a significant number of countries would reach or nearly reach the requirement of a public deficit below 3 per cent of GDP.

"When we take the decision, it should be done at the right time and within the rules of the treaty," he said, referring to the 1998 decision on who should join EU. The Commission's economic policy guidelines, while calling for a social dialogue with the trade unions, also warned that EU could be threatened if its members gave in to social pressures.

"If progress towards sounder public finances and structural reform were to be hampered by rising social and political resistance, this... might add to doubts among some observers as to whether a sufficient number of member states would be ready bor this at the starting date," he said.

"Financial Times"

Комментарии to qualify for = to meet requirements; to slash = to cut reduce;

dent = зд. affect, diminish (a dent in the market = a niche);

projection = forecast, estimate;

benchmark = level;

relaxation = softening;

convergence = зд. membership;

yardstick = criterion (pl criteria);

stopped well short of endorsing = did not approve of; to fall short

of – не дотягивать до, не соответствовать;

public deficit = budget deficit (ср. public sector = state sector);

to gave in to – уступить;

sounder = healthier.

Британия и Канада станут лидерами экономического роста

Промышленные страны стоят на пороге (are on the verge(eve) of) периода быстрого экономического сотрудничества и развития, сообщили эксперты Организации экономического сотрудничества и развития (ОЭСР)¹, отметив, что риск скачка инфляции в этой ситуации очень мал. Главной проблемой передовых государств в ближайшие годы останется безработица, причем это наиболее актуально для континентальной Европы.

В отношении экономического роста четырех из семи ведущих промышленных держав ОЭСР пересмотрела и снизила свои более ранние прогнозы. В последнем полугодовом обзоре ОЭСР прогноз по среднему экономическому росту развитых стран составляет 2,4%, что несколько ниже предложенной ранее цифры в 2,5%.

Текущая экономическая ситуация оценивается экспертами ОЭСР достаточно оптимистично: показатель роста ВВП достиг 2,4%, что превышает летний прогноз (2,1 %).

Самыми быстроразвивающимися странами группы «большой семерки» в будущем году станут Великобритания и Канада.

Наименьшие темпы экономического роста будут зафиксированы в Италии и Японии. По мнению экспертов ОЭСР, будущий год станет самым перспективным для Великобритании за последние 30 лет, что объясняется ( due to) высоким потребительским спросом и стабилизацией рынка инвестиций.

В обзоре отмечается, что по сравнению с предыдущим периодом экономический рост передовых государств сегодня носит более сбалансированный характер. Страны континентальной Европы и Япония также постепенно «приходят в себя» после двухлетнего экономического застоя.

Прогнозы ОЭСР в отношении роста производства и повышения жизненного уровня звучат менее оптимистично. По мнению специалистов, сегодняшние показатели в этих областях уступают достижениям послевоенного периода. Для нормализации ситуации специалисты рекомендуют наладить более гибкие рынки труда.

По данным ОЭСР, в случае выполнения запланированных сокращений бюджета большинство государств Европы (включая Германию, Францию и Италию) приблизится к выполнению условий (to come closer tomeeting the requirements) по государственным займам.

Бюджетный дефицит Германии в следующем году составит 3,4% ВВП, что превышает установленный вМаастрихтском договоре лимит. Эксперты, однако, не исключают, что в случае реализации намеченного сокращения государственных расходов Германии удастся снизить показатель бюджетного дефицита до 3%.

ОЭСР уточнила свой более ранний прогноз по экономическому росту Германии на следующий год, снизив его с 2,45 до 2,2%, и практически вдвое уменьшила прогноз по Италии (1,1%). В отношении США, напротив, ОЭСР подняла планку экономического роста до 2,2%.

В следующем году в Японии ожидается замедление темпов экономического развития. Однако в начале нового века ситуация начнет стабилизироваться на фоне ожидаемого роста процентных ставок.

Г.Баули(«ФТ»)

Комментарии (см. также стр. 98)

скачок инфляции – galloping (skyrocketing) inflation;

потребительский спрос – consumer demand;

«приходят в себя» – recovering;

сокращение бюджета – budget cuts;

уточнила – altered, corrected;

подняла планку – raised the plank (level);

процентные ставки – interest rates.

Тема: Занятость (Employment)

Study Calls Unemployment in Europe 'Grim'

A newstudy by the International Labour Organization (ILO)¹ said that global unemployment stands at "grim" levels in Europe, but found strong evidence that employee tenure (стаж) hasn't slipped much – and is even growing in some countries.

The United Nations estimates that about 30% of the global work force, or roughly one billion people, is unemployed or underemployed. But for workers, the average years spent with the same employer (непрерывный стаж) – a keyindicator of work-force stability – has basically held steady. Insome countries, such as the Netherlands, Canada and France, longterm tenure rose.

Nature of Expansion

"Despite layoffs and downsizing by corporations and government, a substantial group of workers hold stable jobs," said the chief author of the report. "What seems like higher instability may actually reflect the greater number of jobs that younger workers must hold before finding a permanent one."

The question of job tenure may seem arcane but it lies at the center of the controversy over the nature of the current economic expansion. Even in the U.S., where the number of jobs is dwindling, they say thisexplains the widespread perception of economic insecurity

But data suggest this perception is flawed. Economists in the U.S. generally have found no significant declines in job-tenure rates. "You can't say we've gone from an economy of lifetime jobs to one with day-to-day jobs," said David Neumark, an economist at University of Michigan.

A widely cited study last year by Princeton University found that 20% of all U.S. workers between the ages of 45 and 54 say they have worked more than 20 years for the same employer. The percentage was the same in 1973.

In Europe, the picture is similar, according to the ILOstudy, which appears to be the first to compare job-tenure rates across countries. In Australia, based on current data, one-quarter of working men have been with the same employer for at least ten years. In Canada, the figure is 27%. In France, the figure is 38.7%. In Germany (excluding what was formerly East Germany), the figure is 40.7%, in Spain – 36%.

Gains in Real Wages

One reason for job stability in Europe could be that many large employers, under pressure from global competition, arc only now shiftingproduction to low-wage countries and scaling back middle-management positions, steps that seem likely to result in some layoffs. But over-all, the ILO found that "tenure does seem to be at least stable, or even increasing, over time."

For those without a job, however, the European data aren't reassuring. The ILO found that nations that are members of the European Union saw unemployment rise last year to an average of 11.3%. In Eastern and Central Europe, meanwhile, unemployment rates fell slightly but remained at 11.6% or more in Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia and Slovakia. In Russia and some other former Soviet republics, unemployment rose.

On the plus side, the ILO found solid gains in real wages last year among many countries of the former Eastern bloc, with the Czech Republic posting a rise of 7.8%; Romania, 21.8%, and Lithuania, 10%. But Bulgaria and Hungary saw real wage declines of 19% and 10%, respectively.

Figures on joblessness in most developing countries weren't up-to-date, the ILO said.

G.Zachary ("Wall Street Journal Europe ")

Комментарии employee tenure – непрерывный стаж;

layoffs and downsizing – увольнения и сокращения:

arcane = understood by only few;

dwindling = falling, diminishing;

perception = approach;

flawed = incorrect;

to scale back - to cut, reduce gradually;

posting – registering;

real wage; cp. take-home pay («чистыми»).

Тема: Банки