Assessment of Floating Exchange Rates

With floating exchange rates, currency fluctuations take the place of balance of payments problems. If a country’s relative inflation rates rise it becomes less competitive than before and suffers a balance of payments deficit. As imports increase and exports decrease, the supply of the domestic currency increases and the demand for it decreases too. Thus the value of the domestic currency falls, raising the price of imports and reducing the price of exports. The fall will continue until the value of imports and exports is once again the same. In this way, balance of payments problems are corrected automatically. This allows a government to pursue those domestic policies which they believe are most useful for employment and economic growth. Besides, floating exchange rates allow for gradual reduction in the value of a currency.

The development of international trade may be retarded by fluctuations in exchange rates. Even small changes may turn a profit on export into a loss. Long term international capital investments may also be deterred by uncertainties over the future levels of exchange rates. Speculation on exchange rate movements may rise, not fall, due to volatility of currencies. Although speculators may now ‘lose’ if they guess a future change in the exchange rate wrongly, there will be more changes and so more opportunities for ‘gains’ if they guess correctly. The activities of such speculators can actually help to stabilize the market. Fluctuations in exchange rates may occur for reasons other than the flow of goods in international trade; for example, due to large capital movements.

 

Render the passage in English using the English equivalents of the italicized phrases given in Russian. Express the main idea of the passage in one sentence.

Почему меняются валютные курсы?

Валютный курс – это цена одной валюты, выраженная (expressed) в другой валюте. В теории валютные курсы должны быть на уровне, который дает паритет покупательной способности (purchasing power parity). Это означает, что стоимость данного набора (a given selection) товаров и услуг должна быть одинаковой (the same) в разных странах. На самом деле (in fact), механизм, дающий паритет покупательной способности, не работает, так как валютные курсы могут менятся вследствие (due to) валютных спекуляций (currency speculation) – покупка валют в надежде (in the hope of) сделать прибыль. Финансовые институты, компании и богатые физические лица – все покупают валюты в расчете на (looking for) высокие процентные ставки или краткосрочный прирост капитала (short-term capital gains), если валюта подорожает (increases in value). Это означает (means), что валютные курсы меняются вследствие (due to) спекуляций скорее чем (rather than) паритета покупательной способности. Более (over) 95% валютных операций (currency transactions) в мире являются чисто спекулятивными (are purely speculative) и не имеют отношения к (are not related to) международной торговле. Банки и валютные трейдеры (currency traders) зарабатывают большую прибыль на разнице (from the spread) между ценой покупки (the buying price) и ценой продажи (the selling price) валюты.

 

Unit 4 Glossary

ALLOCATION: The process of distributing resources for the production of goods and services, and of distributing goods and services for consumption by households. This process of allocation is essential to an economy's effort to address the problem of scarcity. An allocation is efficient if the resources, goods, and services are distributed according to the economy's highest valued uses.

ASSET: Something that you own. For a person, assets can be financial, like money, stocks, bonds, bank accounts, and government securities, or they can be physical things, like cars, boats, houses, clothes, food, and land. The important assets for our economy are the output we have produced and the resources, capital, and natural resources used to produce that output.

Foreign currencies deposited in banks outside the home country.

BOND RATING: A measure of the ability of a firm to meet its debt obligations or credit worthiness. Basically, a bond rating summarizes the assessment of a firm's net worth, cash flow and viability of projects so that investors can assign the size of the default-risk premium to the bond. These measurements are so important that investors frequently pay professional analysts to collect, monitor and process information about firms.

BUY-SELL SPREAD: (also known as bid/ask or bid/offer spread) for securities (such as stocks, futures contracts, options, or currency pairs) is the difference between the prices quoted (either by a single market maker or in a limit order book) for an immediate sale (ask) and an immediate purchase (bid). The size of the bid-offer spread in a security is one measure of the liquidity of the market and of the size of the transaction cost.

CAPITAL ACCOUNT: One of two parts of a nation's balance of payments. The capital account is a record of all purchases of physical and financial assets between a nation and the rest of the world in a given period, usually one year. On one side of the balance of payments ledger account are all of the foreign assets purchase by our domestic economy. On the other side of the ledger are all of our domestic assets purchased by foreign countries. The capital account is said to have a surplus if a nation's investments abroad are greater than foreign investments at home. In other words, if the good old U. S. of A. is buying up more assets in Mexico, Brazil, and Hungry, than Japanese, Germany, and Canada investors are buying up of good old U. S. assets, then we have a surplus. A deficit is the reverse.

CAPITAL ACCOUNT DEFICIT: An imbalance in a nation's balance of payments capital account in which payments made by the country for purchasing foreign assets exceed payments received by the country for selling domestic assets. In other words, investment by the domestic economy in foreign assets is less than foreign investment in domestic assets. This is generally not a desirable situation for a domestic economy. However, in the wacky world of international economics, a capital account deficit is often balanced by a current account surplus, which is generally considered a desirable situation. If, however, the current account does not balance out the capital account, then a capital account deficit contributes to a balance of payments deficit.

CAPITAL ACCOUNT SURPLUS: An imbalance in a nation's balance of payments capital account in which payments received by the country for selling domestic assets exceed payments made by the country for purchasing foreign assets. In other words, investment by the domestic economy in foreign assets is greater than foreign investment in domestic assets. This is generally a desirable situation for a domestic economy. However, in the wacky world of international economics, a capital account surplus is often balanced by a current account deficit, which is not generally considered a desirable situation. If, however, the current account does not balance out the capital account, then a capital account surplus contributes to a balance of payments surplus.

COMPETITION: In general, the actions of two or more rivals in pursuit of the same objective. In the context of markets, the specific objective is either selling goods to buyers or alternatively buying goods from sellers. Competition tends to come in two varieties -- competition among the few, which is market with a small number of sellers (or buyers), such that each seller (or buyer) has some degree of market control, and competition among the many, which is a market with so many buyers and sellers that none is able to influence the market price or quantity exchanged.

COST: Best referred to as opportunity cost, this is the highest valued alternative foregone in the pursuit of an activity. This is a hallmark of anything dealing with economics -- or life for that matter -- because any action that you take prevents you from doing something else. The value expressed in terms of satisfaction of the foregone activity is your opportunity cost. Because there are usually several alternatives that aren't pursued, opportunity cost is the highest-valued one. An opportunity cost is sometimes compensated with some form of payment, like a wage. However, the existence of an opportunity cost is independent of any actual cash outlay.

CURRENCY: Paper usually issued by the national government that are used as money. Metal coins are also frequently included under the generic heading of currency. Currency in the U.S. economy is issued by the Federal Reserve System (paper) and the U.S. Treasury (coins). This constitutes about 30 to 40 percent of the M1 money supply.

CURRENT ACCOUNT: One of two parts of a nation's balance of payments (the other is capital account). It is a record of all trade, exports and imports, between a nation and the rest of the world. The current account is separated into merchandise, services, and what's called unilateral transfers. The merchandise part is nothing other than the well-known balance of trade. There's also a lesser known balance of services -- the difference between services imported and exported.

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT: An imbalance in a nation's balance of payments current account in which payments received by the country for selling domestic exports are less than payments made by the country for purchasing imports. In other words, imports (of goods and services) by the domestic economy are greater than exports (of goods and services). This is generally a not desirable situation for a domestic economy. However, in the wacky world of international economics, a current account deficit is often balanced by a capital account surplus, which is generally considered a desirable situation. If, however, the capital account does not balance out the current account, then a current account deficit contributes to a balance of payments deficit.

CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS: An imbalance in a nation's balance of payments current account in which payments received by the country for selling domestic exports are greater than payments made by the country for purchasing imports. In other words, imports (of goods and services) by the domestic economy are less than exports (of goods and services). This is generally a desirable situation for a domestic economy. However, in the wacky world of international economics, a current account surplus is often balanced by a capital account deficit, which is generally considered an undesirable situation. If, however, the capital account does not balance out the current account, then a current account surplus contributes to a balance of payments surplus.

DEFLATION: An extended decline in the average level of prices. This is the exact opposite of inflation--in which prices are rising over an extended period, and it should be contrasted with disinflation--which is a decline in the inflation rate. Like inflation, deflation occurs when the AVERAGE price level decreases over time. While some prices might decrease, other prices could increase or remain unchanged, so long as the AVERAGE follows a downward trend. Deflation is a rare bird indeed in our economy and typically happens only when we're in a prolonged period of stagnation. We might see some deflation during a fairly lengthy recession, but more than likely deflation saves itself for the occasional depression that dots our economic landscape.

DEPRECIATION: A more or less permanent decrease in value or price. "More or less permanent" doesn't include temporary, short-term drops in price that are common in many markets. It's only those price declines that reflect a reduction in consumer satisfaction. While all sorts of stuff can depreciate in value, some of the more common ones are capital, real estate, corporate stock, and money. The depreciation of capital results from the rigors of production and affects our economy's ability to produce stuff. A sizable portion of our annual investment is thus needed to replace depreciated capital. The depreciation of a nation's money is seen as an increase in the exchange rate. This process is described in detail in the entry on the J curve.

DEVALUATION: It is a reduction in the value of a currency with respect to those goods, services or other monetary units with which that currency can be exchanged. In common modern usage, it specifically implies an official lowering of the value of a country's currency within a fixed exchange rate system, by which the monetary authority formally sets a new fixed rate with respect to a foreign reference currency. In contrast, depreciation is used for the unofficial decrease in the exchange rate in a floating exchange rate system. The opposite of devaluation is called revaluation.

EXCHANGE RATE: The price of one nation's currency in terms of another nation's currency. This is often called the foreign exchange rate in that it is the price determined in the foreign exchange market when people buy and sell foreign exchange. The exchange rate is specified as the amount of one currency that can be traded per unit of another.

EXCHANGE: The process of trading one item for another. Exchange is fundamental to the study of economics, markets, and market-oriented economies. Most exchanges in a modern, complex market-oriented economy involve a commodity on one side and a monetary payment (that is, price) on the other. In essence, a buyer gives up money and gets a good, while a seller gives up a good and gets money.

EXPORT: The sale of goods to a foreign country. The United States, for example, sells a lot of the stuff produced within our boundaries to other countries, including wheat, beef, cars, furniture, and, well, almost every variety of product you care to name. In general, domestic producers (and their workers) are elated with the prospect of selling their goods to foreign countries--leading to more buyers, a higher price, and more profit. The higher price, however, is bad for domestic consumers. In that domestic consumers tend to have far less political clout than producers, very few criticisms of exports can be heard. On the positive side, though, exports do tend to add to the multiplicative, cumulatively reinforcing expansion of production and income (that is, the multiplier).

EXPORTS: The sale of goods to a foreign country. The United States, for example, sells a lot of the stuff produced within our boundaries to other countries, including wheat, beef, cars, furniture, and, well, almost every variety of product you care to name. In general, domestic producers (and their workers) are elated with the prospect of selling their goods to foreign countries--leading to more buyers, a higher price, and more profit. The higher price, however, is bad for domestic consumers. In that domestic consumers tend to have far less political clout than producers, very few criticisms of exports can be heard. On the positive side, though, exports do tend to add to the multiplicative, cumulatively reinforcing expansion of production and income (that is, the multiplier).

FAVOURABLE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: An imbalance in a nation's balance of payments in which payments made by the country are less than payments received by the country. This is also termed a balance of payments surplus. It's considered favorable because more currency is flowing into the country than is flowing out. Such an unequal flow of currency will expand the supply of money in the nation and subsequently cause a decrease in the exchange rate relative to the currencies of other nations. This then has implications for inflation, unemployment, production, and other facets of the domestic economy. A balance of trade surplus is often the source of a balance of payments surplus, but other payments can turn a balance of trade surplus into a balance of payments deficit.

FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM (also known as the Federal Reserve, and informally as The Fed ): It is the central banking system of the United States. It was created in 1913 with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, largely in response to a series of financial panics, particularly a severe panic in 1907. Over time, the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System have expanded and its structure has evolved. Events such as the Great Depression were major factors leading to changes in the system. Its duties today, according to official Federal Reserve documentation, are to conduct the nation's monetary policy, supervise and regulate banking institutions, maintain the stability of the financial system and provide financial services todepository institutions, the US government, and foreign official institutions.

FINANCIAL ASSETS: These are assets that derive value because of a contractual claim. Stocks, bonds, bank deposits, and the like are all examples of financial assets. Unlike land and property--which are tangible, physical assets--financial assets do not necessarily have physical worth.

FIXED EXCHANGE RATE: A country's exchange rate regime under which the government or central bank ties the official exchange rate to another country's currency (or the price of gold). The purpose of a fixed exchange rate system is to maintain a country's currency value within a very narrow band. Also known as pegged exchange rate.

 

FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE: A country's exchange rate regime where its currency is set by the foreign-exchange market through supply and demand for that particular currency relative to other currencies. Thus, floating exchange rates change freely and are determined by trading in the forex market. This is in contrast to a "fixed exchange rate" regime.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (forex, FX, or currency market): It is a worldwide decentralized over-the-counter financial market for the trading of currencies. Financial centers around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends. The foreign exchange market determines the relative values of different currencies.

FORWARD MARKET: It is the over-the-counter financial market in contracts for future delivery, so called forward contracts. Forward contracts are personalized between parties (i.e., delivery time and amount are determined between seller and customer). The forward market is a general term used to describe the informal market by which these contracts are entered into. Standardized forward contracts are called futures contracts and traded on a futures exchange.

FREE TRADE: The absence of trade barriers, or restrictions on foreign trade. Based on the notion of comparative advantage, unrestricted trade is generally beneficial to a trading country. However, while consumers benefit through a greater selection of products and lower prices, producers in a country are on the receiving end of lower prices and stiffer competition. In that producers tend to have more political clout than consumers, completely, unhindered free trade is seldom seen in the real world. Numerous trade restrictions such as tariffs, nontariff barriers, and quotas are usually the rule of the day (also the rule of the week, year, decade and century).

FREE-TRADE AREA: An agreement among two or more nations to eliminate trade barriers with each other. There is no attempt, however, to adopt a common trade policy with other nations, to allow free movement of resources among the countries, or to adopt common monetary or fiscal policies. This is considered the first of four levels of integration among nations. See common market, customs union, economic union for the other levels.

GATT: The abbreviation for the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. A treaty, signed in 1947 by 23 countries including the United States that was designed to reduce trade barriers. It now carries the signatures of about 100 countries and over the years has been pretty darn effective in reducing tariffs, eliminating some import quotas, and promoting commerce.

GOLD CONVERTABILITY: It is the ease with which a country's currency can be converted into gold or another currency. Convertibility is extremely important for international commerce. When a currency in inconvertible, it poses a risk and barrier to trade with foreigners who have no need for the domestic currency.

 

IMPORT: Goods and services produced by the foreign sector and purchased by the domestic economy. In other words, imports are goods purchased from other countries. The United States, for example, buys a lot of the stuff produced within the boundaries of other countries, including bananas, coffee, cars, chocolate, computers, and, well, a lot of other products. Imports, together with exports, are the essence of foreign trade--goods and services that are traded among the citizens of different nations. Imports and exports are frequently combined into a single term, net exports (exports minus imports).

IMPORTS: Goods and services produced by the foreign sector and purchased by the domestic economy. In other words, imports are goods purchased from other countries. The United States, for example, buys a lot of the stuff produced within the boundaries of other countries, including bananas, coffee, cars, chocolate, computers, and, well, a lot of other products. Imports, together with exports, are the essence of foreign trade--goods and services that are traded among the citizens of different nations. Imports and exports are frequently combined into a single term, net exports (exports minus imports).

INDUSTRY: A group of firms producing goods or services that are close substitutes-in-consumption. The similarity of the products makes it possible to analyze the production in a market framework. An industry can be broadly defined, such as the manufacturing industry, or narrowly specified, such as the root beer industry. For most economic analysis the term industry is used interchangeably with the term market.

INFLATION: A persistent increase in the average price level in the economy. Inflation occurs when the AVERAGE price level (that is, prices IN GENERAL) increases over time. This does NOT mean that ALL prices increase the same, nor that ALL prices necessarily increase. Some prices might increase a lot, others a little, and still other prices decrease or remain unchanged. Inflation results when the AVERAGE of these assorted prices follows an upward trend. Inflation is the most common phenomenon associated with the price level.

PURCHASING POWER PARITY (PPP): It is a theory of long-term equilibrium exchange rates based on relative price levels of two countries. The idea originated in the 16th century and was developed in its modern form by Gustav Cassel in 1918. The concept is founded on the law of one price; the idea that in absence of transaction costs, identical goods will have the same price in different markets. In its "absolute" version, the purchasing power of different currencies is equalized for a given basket of goods.

QUOTA: A limit on the quantity of some sort of activity. Two of the more noted quotas are for employment and imports. Employment quotas have been used as a means of providing increased opportunities to blacks, hispanics, women, and other groups that have been historically subject to discrimination. Such quotas, however, tend to anger other groups, especially white males, who don't get favorable treatment. While employment or similar anti-discrimination quota systems might help address historical problems, they are not without cost. In particular, our economy's efficiency is likely to suffer if a less qualified member of an ethnic group is selected over someone who is more qualified. Import quotas have similar problems. They are one form of trade barriers that's usually intended to reduce the competition faced by a domestic producer.

REAL ASSETS: These are physical or identifiable assets such as gold, land, equipment, patents, etc. They are the opposite of a financial asset. Real assets tend to be most desirable during periods of high inflation.

RESOURCE ALLOCATION: The process of dividing up and distributing available, limited resources to competing, alternative uses that satisfy unlimited wants and needs. Given that world is rampant with scarcity (unlimited wants and needs, but limited resources), every want and need cannot be satisfied with available resources. Choices have to be made. Some wants and needs are satisfied, some are not. These choices, these decisions are the resource allocation process. An efficient resource allocation exists if society has achieved the highest possible level of satisfaction of wants and needs from the available resources and resources cannot be allocated differently to achieve any greater satisfaction.

SPECIALIZATION: The condition in which resources are primarily devoted to specific tasks. This is one of THE most important and most fundamental notions in the study of economics. Civilized human beings have long recognized that limited resources can be more effectively used in the production the goods and services that satisfy unlimited wants and needs if those resources specialize. For example, three ice cream parlor workers, can be, in total, more productive if one runs the cash register, another scoops the ice cream, and a third adds the hot fudge topping. By devoting their energies to learning how to do their respective tasks really, really well, these three workers can produce more hot fudge sundaes than if each performed all required tasks.

SPECULATION: Buying an asset with the intent of reselling it later at a higher price. The purpose of speculation is simply to buy low today and sell high tomorrow. Those who engage in speculation have no reason for buying the asset, other than resale at a later time. Such speculation is quite common in most financial markets (futures markets are a particular favorite), but it's also a motive for those who have "investments" in fine art, baseball cards, coins, and real estate.

STABILITY: Limiting macroeconomic fluctuations in prices, employment, and production. This is one of the five economic goals, specifically one of the three macro goals (the other two are economic growth and full employment). One primary focus of this stability goal is to keep inflation in check. High or unpredictable inflation rates can cause uncertainty and haphazardly redistribute income and wealth.

SUBSIDY: A payment from government to individuals or businesses without any expectations of production. The best way of thinking about a subsidy is as a negative tax. Government extends subsidies for many different reasons. They go to students, unemployed workers, the poor, farmers, wealthy friends of political leaders, businesses trying to fend off foreign competitors, and the list could go on. Subsidies are frequently used to redirect resources from one good to another. Sometimes this is justified on efficiency grounds and other times it's just the result of political power.

TARIFF: A tax that's usually on imports, but occasionally (very rarely) on exports. This is one form of trade barrier that's intended to restrict imports into a country. Unlike nontariff barriers and quotas which increase prices and thus revenue received by domestic producers, a tariff generates revenue for the government. Most pointy-headed economists who spend their waking hours pondering the plight of foreign trade contend that the best way to restrict trade, if that's what you want to do, is through a tariff.

THIRD-WORLD COUNTRY: A country with a relatively low standard of living and which lacks the economic development of more advanced industrialized nations like the United States. Most third-world countries are in Africa, Asia, and South America and often rise to newsworthy prominence when they have a famine, are overthrown by a military dictator, or are invaded by a more developed country. They tend to have high rates of population growth and limited success in doing what's necessary to achieve economic growth.

UNFAIR COMPETITION: A wide assortment of business practices that are deceptive and dishonest, and usually hamper competition. Examples of unfair competition include false or misleading advertising, price discrimination, bribery, and even industrial espionage. These practices and many, many more are illegal according to antitrust law, specifically the Federal Trade Commission Act (1914).

UNFAVOURABLE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: An imbalance in a nation's balance of payments in which payments made by the country exceed payments received by the country. This is also termed a balance of payments deficit. It's considered unfavorable because more currency is flowing out of the country than is flowing in. Such an unequal flow of currency will reduce the supply of money in the nation and subsequently cause an increase in the exchange rate relative to the currencies of other nations. This then has implications for inflation, unemployment, production, and other facets of the domestic economy. A balance of trade deficit is often the source of a balance of payments deficit, but other payments can turn a balance of trade deficit into a balance of payments surplus.

URUGUAY ROUND: The eighth and final round of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations that is most noted for establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO) to replace GATT. The Uruguay round began in 1986 and was concluded in 1994. In addition to establishing the WTO, the Uruguay round also sought to reduce tariffs and trade restrictions among member countries.

VOLATILITY: In finance, volatility most frequently refers to the standard deviation of the continuously compounded returns of a financial instrument within a specific time horizon. It is common for discussions to talk about the volatility of a security's price, even while it is the returns' volatility that is being measured. It is used to quantify the risk of the financial instrument over the specified time period. Volatility is normally expressed in annualized terms, and it may either be an absolute number ($5) or a fraction of the mean (5%).

WTO: The abbreviation for World Trade Organization, which is an international organization that oversees multilateral trade among nations. The WTO was established in 1995 by the Uruguay round of trade negotiations to replace the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that had been in place for the preceding five decades. The WTO administers multilateral trade agreements, provides a forum for trade negotiations, handles trade disputes, monitors national trade policies, and provides technical assistance and training for developing countries. The WTO has about 150 member countries.