Sample summary and representativeness estimation

4.1.1. Application statistics

 

As I mentioned above, I will try to find the traits of success that distinguish applications that belong specifically to the "common language" group. First, you should decide on the size of the market and the target audience. How many people and who exactly uses these applications?

According to the Go Mobile agency [Roskatchestvo, 2019], which promotes mobile products, about 20 million people use language learning apps in Russia.

“81% of all pupils and students use mobile apps in the Education category. They make up more than half of all users who install applications for learning foreign languages. The second largest segment of the target audience of language applications is users aged 25-40. For them, mobile programs provide an opportunity to independently acquire the necessary skill, improve their language proficiency, or even learn a new one. Tellingly, these users are willing to pay for content. If we look at the top paid apps in the Education category, the most popular of them have been downloaded over a million times, and these are just apps for learning English,” – said Dmitry Miroshnichenko, Head of Business Development at Go Mobile.

Another source, namely the results of a survey [Demouy V. et al, 2016] conducted in 2015 among students studying a foreign language remotely, showed that 143 users out of 243 survey respondents (53%) use at least one mobile application when learning a foreign language. However, most likely, not all of these users are experienced and regular users of mobile language learning apps. It also notes that in March 2013, a survey conducted by the IT department of the same institution showed that the share of mobile users (excluding tablet users) in the French course was only 16%.

Let us now turn to the statistics concerning the applications themselves. What applications do users prefer, according to the data found?

The Statista portal, which monitors the latest events and current trends in more than 170 markets and industries every day, will help me answer this question. Statista continuously conducts independent, objective and insight-based research using over 22,500 sources. All sources are constantly checked for relevance and reliability. Through continuous structured analysis of massive sets of raw data, they collect statistical data and identify patterns.

According to their data [Statista (3), 2022], Duolingo was the most downloaded mobile language learning app in 2021 with about 86 million downloads worldwide. It experienced peak downloads in August 2021 despite being removed from several app stores in China earlier this month.

The Cake app has successfully capitalized on the phone video craze that has gripped users in recent years, with YouTube videos from popular movies and TV shows generating 36 million downloads in 2021.

The popularity of language learning apps is strongly influenced by seasonal changes: users feel more motivated to learn a new language in the first months of the year. In January 2021, the leading mobile apps for language learning and practice were downloaded by over 26.6 million users worldwide.

This is also stated in the annual report of Duolingo [Duolingo, 2022], they observe some seasonality in both the growth in the number of users and in monetization. Historically, their user and subscriber count increases in January and then spikes in the third quarter as their product is used by students returning to school. Finally, the second half of December, as the new year approaches, also sees an increase in app usage as people make "New Year's resolutions", including the decision to learn new things like languages.

Going back to the stats for this year, Duolingo still holds the lead: in February it was the world's most popular language learning app in terms of monthly downloads, with over 8.6 million users downloading it on their mobile devices within a month.

Language-learning apps focusing on English as a foreign language or a second language were also popular, with Cake amassing around 1.9 million downloads, and Lingokids, an app for kids, ranked third in the world.

Language learning apps that combine the gamification of learning with language acquisition are an increasingly popular method of learning and practicing a foreign language for adults and children alike [Statista (1), 2022].

According to other data from this source, describing the market share of the leading multilingual language learning apps among users aged 20 to 34 in Russia in 2021, the situation was as follows [Statista (2), 2022]:

· Duolingo - 47%;

· EWA - 34%;

· Busuu – 12%;

· Mondly - 7%.

The results of their survey “Which course subject would you be interested in self-paced online education?” indicate that the majority (36%) of respondents in Russia in 2018 said they were interested in learning English on their own online [Statista (4), 2022]. Personal career development and human resource management were named by almost a quarter of survey participants each.

In addition, the Duolingo Annual Language Report 2021 [Duolingo, 2021] states that English remains the most popular language to learn (within this app) globally, with the highest number of learners in 120 countries (62 % of all countries), including in Russia (German is in second place in our country).

As we found out, the Duolingo app is the most popular language learning app not only in Russia but also in the world. It and some other applications will be discussed in more detail later, however, I will note here one interesting fact regarding the financial statements of the company of the same name (which, by the way, entered the Nasdaq exchange on July 28, 2021). Despite the steady growth in the popularity of its application and the growth in revenue in recent years (the company's total revenue for 2021 was $ 250.8 million, an increase of 55% compared to 2020), as a result, the company suffers a net loss, which last year increased significantly. [Duolingo, 2022] A net loss of $60.1 million compared to a net loss of $15.8 million in 2020, however much of this change is due to IPO-related stock compensation and other IPO expenses.

 

 

4.1.2. Hypothesis testing

 

To performance the research, I need to confirm or refute the hypotheses indicated at the very beginning. Next, I will list the secondary information regarding these hypotheses that I managed to find.

 

4.1.2.1. MONETIZATION

 

The study [Kmet, 2021] conducted in-depth interviews with experts from Russia and China in the field of monetization of various applications. The objectives of the interview were to find out how they monetize their applications, what problems they face, what factors affect the growth of monetization.

Here are some of the data obtained during the interview:

· After 30 days of using the application, 31.2% of Russian users delete it. 90 days after installation in Russia 84.2% of users continue to use the application.

· The most popular app monetization strategy among experts is the combined one, in which experts combine several types of monetization.

· Mistakes in application monetization experts call non-use of user data, the use of cheap advertising, lack of marketing analysis, focus on advertising, and others.

· The factors influencing monetization, almost all experts attributed all kinds of analytics and advertising strategy, the use of metadata.

Thus, the results of the interview made it possible to highlight the problems: app monetization indicators directly depend on the right strategy and set of tools, on competent data analysis, analytics and the use of modern technological solutions.

To go directly to Duolingo's case study [Duolingo, 2022], they are using a freemium model based on premium subscriptions, advertising and in-app-purchases with free basic features. They believe that the following attributes of their business model are key to their success:

· large market: worldwide there is a huge number of potential users, which HolonIQ estimates at about 2 billion people;

· language learners for free: since all learning materials are available without any subscription, anyone can download Duolingo, use it for as long as they want, and take any of the courses for free; this allowed to increase the number of active users to 42 million per month at the end of 2021; these millions of students provide two benefits to this business model:

o they provide a word-of-mouth effect that promotes popularity and allows for very selective and effective marketing investments;

o their users perform more than 500 million exercises every day, generating massive amounts of data that underpin large-scale A/B testing and new AI techniques.

· paid subscriber conversion: since users tend to use a product for months or even years before they decide to subscribe, the company reaps the economic benefits of attracting new users over their long stay on the platform (subscribers were 6% of their monthly active users in 2021).

 

4.1.2.2.  USER PREFERENCES

 

As part of a study to develop directions for monetization of the Orange Language application for learning foreign languages, an analysis of competitors and preferences of mobile application users was carried out [Kmet, 2021].

As for all groups of applications, it was found that 40.3% of respondents prefer to use applications that have paid additional features. 39.7% of respondents choose free/trial apps. 15.3% of those surveyed prefer to use apps with a paid subscription, while 4.7% use paid apps.

When asked about in-app advertising, 46.3% of respondents said that the paid version of the app solves the annoying problem. 30.3% of those surveyed believe that in-app ads are too distracting and intrusive. 23.3% of respondents believe that they do not plan to buy applications when they see ads, so they have a negative attitude towards them.

A significant part of the respondents deleted apps due to the presence of too many ads (41.7%), as well as because of the difficulty of navigating in the app (12.3%). 7.3% and 7.0% of respondents deleted the application for reasons, respectively, of the lack of assistance in solving a specific task for which the application was downloaded, as well as the need for a large amount of data, without which registration is impossible.

In the course of analyzing the preferences of users of applications for education, it was revealed that the main audience is men (52.5%); 67% of respondents aged 28 - 31 (23.7%) and 36 - 40 (23.7%). In this regard, it was proposed to develop male-oriented content.

In the course of an empirical study, it was found that in the applications of the “education” category, respondents rarely make purchases in most cases, therefore, an increase in the interest of this audience segment in the application will contribute to the subsequent desire to spend money here.

It was also revealed that the key reason why respondents do not make purchases is that they do not consider it necessary to do so and are looking for free versions. Therefore, the authors propose to leave the application free and put the introduction of additional functions as the basis for its monetization.

According to users, their loyalty can be increased due to the appearance of new functions in applications that can help solve problems, so expanding additional functions in the application is another direction of monetization.

It was found that users of education apps spend an average of about 100 yuan in the app every month. The authors believe that this should be taken into account when developing a pricing policy for additional features.

At the same time, the researchers note that placing a large number of ads in the application cannot be an effective component of app monetization. This is due to the fact that almost half of the user audience, as revealed in the course of empirical research, deletes applications due to the presence of a large amount of advertising.

Let us turn to another study [Nino, 2015] conducted among language students at the University of Manchester in the autumn of 2013. This study examines the use of mobile language learning (MALL) by university students to learn about the perceptions and experiences of language learners when they use mobile apps for self-guided language learning.

Reflecting the results of the question “How do you think mobile apps are useful?” 73% of students believe that the main benefit of these apps is that they help increase vocabulary. Portability and freedom to use for additional practice at any time and at the pace of the student was ranked as the second most important reason, followed by aid in memory (41%), reading comprehension (32%) and the fact that it makes learning fun, that is, there are elements of gamification (39%).

Other reasons students found mobile apps helpful were for improving pronunciation and intonation, sentence building, and understanding spoken language, which are the first steps in language learning. Last on the list is help with improving grammar and spelling skills, which usually require more formal training and deeper knowledge of the language, as well as contextual practice and feedback or some form of interaction.

Most of the students surveyed are well aware of the various mobile apps available for language learning, and this was reflected in their responses to the question: “Can you give examples of apps that you find useful for self-study of a language?” Let's take a look at applications that interest us to improve general language competence, as well as popular flashcards for memorizing words.

Let's start with language practice apps like Duolingo, which students find useful for reviewing basic and more advanced language skills. Students appreciate the fact that grammar rules and the meaning of words are explained there, there is a translation into the target language and vice versa, and practice of their vocabulary is carried out. Respondents also cited listening to the correct pronunciation of words, practicing speaking, and even comparing themselves with their friends as valuable features, because Duolingo is paired with Facebook. They also love the fact that they get a reminder to practice every day.

Apps similar to Duolingo are Busuu and Babble. Some of the benefits noted by the students were that they have different levels to help you improve, you also get feedback and you can see your improvements over time.

Among the flashcard apps respondents highlighted were Quizlet for recording and practicing vocabulary, Memrise, which combines memory and play features, and similar tools such as Brainscape and Anki. The students probably liked not only the personalization of the content, but also the competitive element.

 

4.1.2.3. HOW USERS FIND APPS

 

Google and Ipsos MediaCT conducted a survey between 12 and 22 September 2014 of 8,470 smartphone owners aged 18 to 64 who had used apps in the week before to find out how users interact with apps [Think with Google, 2015]. The researchers were interested in what motivates them to download and use apps.

App companies assume that users find new apps in app stores - and indeed, 40% of smartphone owners do just that. However, this is not the only way to find something new for yourself.

Many users learn about apps by doing things with their smartphones, whether they're using or searching for other apps on the web, watching YouTube videos, or reading texts on a website. One of the most popular sources is Google Search: through it, applications are found by 25% of users.

Users don't just search for information about new apps on Google Search, they also download them thanks to search ads. This ad format is one of the most effective for increasing installs. The survey showed that 50% of users who downloaded an app after viewing an ad saw a search ad.

To increase the visibility of the application, you can use marketing tools that are aimed at increasing the number of downloads. For example, create an app install campaign. Thanks to this, it is possible to reach a wide audience that is looking for solutions similar to those advertised.

Users appreciate applications that are designed for specific purposes. According to the study, two-thirds of users regularly use applications if they simplify the solution of certain everyday tasks.

38% of participants said they were more likely to download an app if needed to make a purchase. However, half of them plan to remove it immediately afterwards. How to convince users to download the application and return to it in the future? The researchers believe the answer is simple: they need to prove that it can be useful to them.

You can convince users to return to the application in many ways. For example, 30% of study participants said they would do so if offered a discount. Almost a quarter would use the app again if they received bonus or exclusive content.

Do not forget that this is probably a commissioned study, so these data should be treated with caution.

At the same time, there is other evidence that 76% of people believe that businesses lie in advertising about their products [Yankelovich], and 67% of purchases are directly influenced by word of mouth [McKinsey, Thompson and Lightstone]. It is not known how these statistics correlate with mobile applications, however, it is worth recognizing that word of mouth should play no less significant role than advertising and other sources of information.

This information on the hypotheses put forward slightly reveals to us the secret of the success of mobile applications and will help in compiling the model of the “ideal application”. Let's now turn directly to the objects of study - mobile applications and describe some of the popular ones.

 

4.1.3. TOP-6 applications

 

According to the data found, Roskachestvo named Simpler, Busuu, Puzzle English for iOS and Busuu, LingoDeer and Puzzle English for Android as the best apps for learning English from scratch. The Duolingo application mentioned here more than once takes only 9th and 8th positions there, respectively [Roskatchestvo, 2019].

For research, the Center for Digital Expertise of Roskachestvo selected 22 of the most popular applications in the Russian segment. They studied mobile applications designed for learning English by Russian-speaking users from scratch and representing a full-fledged educational and methodological complex - that is, teaching grammar and writing, training speaking and listening.

The tests were carried out according to 52 criteria. The experts assessed the variability of the training format, the presence of a content preload function, a test to determine the level of knowledge, language rules, a dictionary, the possibility of choosing training topics and dialogue with an expert (teacher). Particular attention was paid to the motivational component of mobile applications in the form of virtual achievements, statistics and other things.

Roskachestvo experts also evaluated the performance and reliability of mobile applications for learning English, ease of use, information content and reliability of information posted by developers in the App Store and Google Play.

However, looking ahead a bit, in the course of my survey, it turned out that users prefer other applications for learning foreign languages. Let's take a closer look at the applications that respondents heard the most about.

Each of these applications has an official website, which contains up-to-date information about it. On these sites, thematic blogs are maintained, in which, among other things, information about applications is mentioned. We will use this information, as well as other sources to describe applications and collect statistics, for example, the similarweb.com portal. [Similarweb, 2022].

Reflecting the resource's more than 10 years of experience, its DigitalRank tool is the defining measure of the digital world that leaders like Google, Amazon and Microsoft rely on daily. Their sources of information are data from millions of websites and applications, directly measured by analysis tools such as Google Analytics, it is public data that is algorithmically captured and indexed from billions of websites and applications, it is anonymous traffic data collected using Similarweb products installed on millions of devices around the world, and others. This portal provides information about the position of this application in the global ranking, not only among educational applications. Let's get to the description of apps.

· Duolingo is the world's leading mobile learning platform, offering courses in over 40 languages ​​to approximately 42 million monthly active users. With over 500 million downloads, its flagship app has become the world's most popular way to learn languages ​​and the fastest growing app in the Education category on both Google Play and the Apple App Store [Duolingo (2), 2022].

This application can be used as a supplementary guide with interactive exercises for language learners from scratch. The educational course is divided into various topics and stages according to the principle "from simple to complex". Skills such as writing and speaking, vocabulary and listening are trained there; the app regularly reminds you of the lesson.

Subscription cost: $7/month.

Launched: 2012.

Global ranking on similarweb.com: 426.

Rating on the Google Play platform: 4.6/5.

· Lingualeo is an online service for learning and practicing over 50 languages, used by 17 million people worldwide [LinguaLeo, 2022]. Its users learn English from materials in English (movies, music, books), do training to consolidate their vocabulary, master courses for their goals (for work, communication, travel), complete tasks and monitor the satiety of Leo's character.

Subscription cost: $11/month, $62/year.

Launched: 2010.

Global ranking on similarweb.com: 23'815.

Rating on the Google Play platform: 4.6/5.

· Quizlet is a free service that makes it easy to memorize any information that can be presented in the form of study cards. All that is required is to find in the database or create interactive material - your own cards, adding pictures and audio files to them and then doing exercises and playing games to remember this material.

There are eight different ways to work with this application. Five learning modes (flashcards, memorization, writing, spelling, testing) and three types of activities (matching terms and two games) make learning any material fun and effective [Quizlet, 2022]. As of December 2021, Quizlet claims to have over 500 million user flashcard sets and over 60 million active users.

Subscription price: $35/year.

Launched: 2007.

Global ranking on similarweb.com: 235.

Rating on the Google Play platform: 4.8/5.

· Hello Talk is the leading language and cultural exchange app with over 30 million language learners [HelloTalk, 2022]. With this application, you can connect with native speakers of the language you are learning and chat with them for free. Its interface includes a range of advanced tools that make language practice easy and fun. You can chat with individuals or join groups to learn as a team. You can find language exchange partners according to different parameters: native language, city, distance from you, and many others. You will be able to find a partner with whom you can start communication, anywhere in the world.

Subscription price: $10/month.

Launched: 2012.

Global ranking on similarweb.com: 98'530.

Rating on the Google Play platform: 4.0/5.

· Memrise – this platform now has over 50 million users in 189 countries [Memrise, 2022]. Learning new words with the help of images, practical interactive tasks for repetition and consolidation contribute to more effective vocabulary learning. In one session, you need to learn a few words - their number is regulated in the settings. Words are first introduced for memorization, then for consolidation. In the following study sessions, already learned words also appear for repetition.

Subscription cost: 3$/month.

Launched: 2010.

Global ranking on similarweb.com: 10,893.

Rating on the Google Play platform: 4.6.

· Busuu – this resource offers a combination of learning at your own pace, online classes with experienced teachers and practice with over 120 million native speakers from around the world. Lessons focus on a variety of skills including grammar, listening and reading [Busuu, 2022]. Pronunciation is strengthened through speech recognition exercises and students are given the opportunity to practice both receptive and productive skills, the ability to send text and audio messages; communicate using audio and video calls; correct mistakes in the texts of the interlocutor, a wide geography of possible partners for learning languages.

Subscription price: $10/month ($59/year).

Launched: 2008.

Global ranking on similarweb.com: 7,401.

Rating on the Google Play platform: 4.1/5.

 

4.2. Survey

 

Having collected secondary data, we can proceed directly to confirming or refuting the data already received, which will be briefly reflected again in the “Expectations” paragraph. Having assessed the representativeness of the sample, I will go directly to the results obtained during my survey and draw the appropriate conclusions. The results of the survey, along with the data already collected, will form the basis of my “ideal application” model.

 

 

The purpose of the survey was to identify the reasons for the success and failure of mobile applications for learning foreign languages. To do this, the respondents were asked a series of questions, which are described in the Methodology section.

Diagrams characterizing the sample are presented in Appendix 2. What conclusions can be drawn about the representativeness of the sample?

Firstly, it is worth noting right away that the unrepresentativeness inherent in some Internet surveys, associated with the completion of the survey only by users of mobile devices and a computer, does not affect this topic, since learning a foreign language using a mobile application involves the use of any mobile device or computer.

However, there is a risk of repeated participation of respondents in the survey and deliberate distortion of data. Neither one nor the other is controlled in any way, but the probability of these events should be low.

In addition, only those who wanted to take it for their own reasons took the online survey, that is, the spontaneity of the sample is very likely. I can assume that many of those who have never dealt with these applications did not take the survey, and this should also distort the results.

Secondly, due to the specifics of the online survey, I managed to get 138 responses from respondents in a very short time (1 day), which is a considerable number on the scale of my survey.

Thirdly, and unfortunately, due to the fact that the distribution of the link to this survey began through student groups, as well as due to the high online activity of this age segment, the main share of those who completed the survey (64%) are young people aged 18 - 24 years, which imposes significant restrictions on the representativeness of the sample.

On the other hand, according to Go Mobile data [Roskatchestvo, 2019], it is this age segment that is the most active users of these applications, therefore, having obtained such a relatively large number of opinions from respondents of this age, one can, on the contrary, hope for a more objective picture regarding the advantages and cons of applications.

Fourth, it is worth noting that the majority of those who completed the survey (65%) are female, and by occupation, the respondents are 52% of students and 38% of workers. According to the already mentioned Go Mobile data [Roskatchestvo, 2019], pupils and students are the most active category of users of such applications, so the preponderance in the number of respondents in their direction is rather good than bad. But the general population will have to be completely forgotten.

This is the sample obtained during the survey. It is not representative, but it is quite suitable for the purposes of my research. What could be expected from the results obtained during the survey?