What kind of winter will it BE.

 

To answer the question, "What kind of weather will we have next winter?" is an entirely different kind of problem from saying what the weather will be like in New York or Boston tomorrow or the next day.

What makes the problem so different?

First, the daily forecast envisions the continuing development over a short period of time of a relatively local (perhaps nationwide) weather pattern. The detailed initial conditions and the important ingredients are well known by current observation. More distant conditions or physical factors do not have time to make their influences felt within a day or two.

The seasonal forecast, on the other hand, is intimately dependent on the complete hemispheric weather pattern. The average state or the nature of the weather activity in one locality can be treated in no sense as an isolated local problem. Furthermore, there is no continuous progressive development of a large-scale pattern over longer periods as there is over a short term locally.

Specific local forecasts of the day-to-day weather changes can be made almost scientifically for a day or two ahead. However, the accuracy of such forecasts falls off rapidly with time, as more distant conditions and weather control factors begin to make their effects felt in relatively unknown ways. No one to date has demonstrated ability to forecast local day-to-day weather changes with any significant degree of skill more than four or five days ahead. It follows that monthly or seasonal forecasts cannot accurately predict short-period weather fluctuations.

No "scientific" seasonal forecasting is possible. There is not even general agreement among meteorologists as to what long-term "weather control factors" make the large-scale weather behaviour patterns of one winter or one summer season so different from another, let alone how to incorporate the understanding of any such factors into "scientific" seasonal forecasting.

For a long time to come, seasonal weather forecasts will be based on a statistical or pattern analogy. This is done by comparing the current and recent behaviour of the general circulation and weather on a hemispheric scale with similar behaviour in corresponding periods in the past. We thus have empirical as opposed to scientific forecasting. However, insofar as the basic long-term weather "control" factors can be surmised or identified, the current state of these factors can be included, at least in a qualitative sense, in the comparative analogy.

The seasonal forecasts themselves are bound to be general and broad, in the form of mean states or trends of the weather activity over large geographical areas without much local detail. Only if the selected analogue of the current period shows good similarity in the month-to-month progression of the large-scale weather behaviour patterns is there any basis on which to hazard a guess as to the probable month-to-month progression of the large-scale seasonal weather abnormalities or trends.

We are working on the solar-weather analogue approach to the preparation of a weather forecast for the two or three seasons ahead. Three basic steps are involved:

1) The selection of the two or three years in the past when the behaviour of the hemispheric general circulation and weather patterns-were most similar to (best analogues of) the currently terminating season and the two preceding seasons.

2) The comparison of solar (sunspot) activity and any other possible long-term factors of "weather control" during the current year with the behaviour of the same factors during the two or three selected analogue years, to narrow down the choice to that of a single best analogue year for the current year.

3) Use of the large-scale weather patterns during the following two or three seasons of the selected analogue year as an indication of the expected development during the current year. Modifications of the development of the analogue year may be made on the basis of important differences of the current large-scale weather patterns, or of solar activity, or of other possible control factors from the corresponding conditions in the analogue year.

We select the two or three analogue years which correspond best to the current year in the large-scale weather patterns of the northern hemisphere. This is the most important step in the analogue selection. We have on file the complete northern hemispheric seasonal mean charts of departure from normal of sea-level pressure, of upper-level pressure and of temperature for every season from 1899 to the present. These charts give a complete picture, season by season, of the abnormalities of the northern hemispheric patterns of wind circulation and of temperature for the 63-year period.

 

2 Переведите на русский язык следующие английские словосочетания:

1) an entirely different kind of problem; 6) the average state;

2) to make the problem; 7) an isolated local problem;

3) the daily forecast; 8) general agreement;

4) the important ingredients; 9) similar behaviour;

5) on the other hand; 10) geographical areas.

 

3 Найдите в тексте английские эквиваленты следующих словосочетаний:

1) специфические местные прогнозы; 7) солнечная активность;

2) важные различия; 8) соответствующие

3) полная картина; периоды;

4) солнечная активность; 9) три главных шага;

5) текущий год; 10) погодные изменения.

6) лучшие аналоги;

4 Найдите в тексте слова, имеющие общий корень с данными словами. Определите, к какой части речи они относятся, и переведите их на русский язык:

Develop, season, local, further, science, know, agree, quality, indicate, work.

5 Задайте к, выделенному в тексте, предложению все типы вопросов: общий, альтернативный, разделительный, два специальных: а) к подлежащему, б) к любому члену предложения.

6 Выполните анализ данных предложений, обратив внимание на следующие грамматические явления: числительные; времена группы Continuous (Present, Past, Future Active & Passive); усилительная конструкция; времена группы Perfect (Present, Past, Future Active & Passive); функции глаголов to be, to have; согласование времен; неопределенные местоимения some, any, no и их производные:

1) To answer the question, "What kind of weather will we have next winter?" is an entirely different kind of problem from saying what the weather will be like in New York or Boston tomorrow or the next day.

2) No one to date has demonstrated ability to forecast local day-to-day weather changes with any significant degree of skill more than four or five days ahead.

3) We are working on the solar-weather analogue approach to the preparation of a weather forecast for the two or three seasons ahead.

4) For a long time to come, seasonal weather forecasts will be based on a statistical or pattern analogy.

5) More distant conditions or physical factors do not have time to make their influences felt within a day or two.

6) It was we who select the two or three analogue years which correspond best to the current year in the large-scale weather patterns of the northern hemisphere.

7) The article said that we had empirical as opposed to scientific forecasting.

8) We have selected the two or three analogue years which correspond best to the current year in the large-scale weather patterns of the northern hemisphere.

7 Ответьте на вопросы по тексту:

1) What doesthe daily forecast envision?

2) What is the seasonal forecast intimately dependent on?

3) What analogy will seasonal weather forecasts be based on?

4) How is this done?

5) What basic steps are involved to the preparation of a weather forecast?

6) How many analogue years do we select?

7) Why is this the most important step in the analogue selection?