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ECONOMIC SITUATION IN RUSSIA
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Russia was worth 1857.77 billion US dollars in 2011.
Industrial Production in Russia increased 2.1 percent in August of 2012. In 2011, measured in current dollars, Russia’s economy was the ninth biggest in the world, compared to the eleventh biggest in 2007. This year, Russia’s output might exceed US$2 trillion. Equalizing for prices difference with purchasing power parity, Russia’s economy is already the sixth biggest today. The US Department of Energy states: "Russia is also the world's largest exporter of natural gas, the second largest oil exporter, and the third largest energy consumer." The top oil extraction companies are Rosneft, Lukoil, Tnk-BP Holding. The top gas extraction companies were Gasprom and Novatek.
Defense industry.Russia's defense industry employs 2.5 – 3 million people, accounting for 20% of all manufacturing jobs. Russia is the world's second largest conventional arms exporter after the United States. The most popular types of weaponry bought from Russia are Sukhoi and MiG fighters, air defense systems, helicopters, battle tanks, armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles.Aircraft manufacturing.Aircraft manufacturing is an important industry sector in Russia, employing around 355,300 people. The Russian aircraft industry offers a portfolio of internationally competitive military aircraft such as MiG-29 and Su-30.Space industrySpace industry of Russia consists of over 100 companies and employs 250,000 people. The largest company of the industry is RKK Energia, the main manned space flight contractor. Leading launch vehicle producers are Khrunichev and TsSKB Progress. Automotive industryAutomobile production is a significant industry in Russia, Russia was the world's 15th largest car producer in 2010, and accounts for about 7% of the worldwide production. The largest companies are light vehicle producers AvtoVAZ and GAZ, while KAMAZ is the leading heavy vehicle producer. 11 foreign carmakers have production operations or are constructing plants in RussiaElectronicsRussia is experiencing a regrowth of Microelectronics. An example of a successful Russian consumer electronics company is Telesystems, whose products are sold in over 20 countries.
The total Russian turnover in 2011 was 453,642 (it increased by 35% compare to 2010). The external trade turnoverin Russia had the sharp decrease in 2009 that was connected with the fall of export and import after years of the world economic crisis.
The structure of Russian export is following: the share of Crude oil, natural gas, wood and wood products is 77%; than Russia exports 8% of metals; the share of chemicals is 5 %; food – 4%, machinery, civilian and military manufactures – 4%; agricultural products – 2%.
Russia's main trading partner is still China, foreign trade turnover between Russia and China increased by over 40% compared to 2010 and exceeded 10% of the trade balance of the country.
The country's foreign trade structure of Russia occupies a special place in the European Union, as the largest economic partner of the country. The share of the European Union (Germany, Netherland, Italy, France) in 2010, accounted for 52% of Russia's trade turnover (in 2009 - 51.3%). The CIS countries in 2010 accounted for 14.5% of Russia's trade turnover (in 2009 - 15%), the EurAsEC countries - 8.2% (8.7%), the APEC countries - 20.4% (19.3% ).
Russia’s foreign trade surplus grew 12 percent year-on-year in January-June 2012 to $115.9 billion. The foreign trade balance was positive at $115.9 billion or $12.6 billion up on January-June 2011. Importsinto Russia grew by 3.6 percent to $145.4 billion in January-June 2012, while exports from Russia rose by 7.3 percent to $261.4 billion, increasing the country’s foreign trade turnover by 5.9 percent to $406.8 billion.
Russia’s inflation slowed to 3.7% in March as compared with the same month last year, which was below the 2012 target range of 5-6%.
In 2011, the population of Russia grew by 191,000 people, and reached a total of more than 143 million.In the first seven months of 2012, Russia's population increased by 123,500 people.
22 August 2012 Russia becomes the 156th WTO member. Vanuatu will join the WTO on 24 August as its 157th member.
Pros of WTO: Reduced the prices of many goods, Growth of the economy(due to inflow of investment and competitivnes of Russian companies, Russia will be able to participate in the development of international trade rules and protect their interests.Cons of WTO: Unemployment could increase in some sectors, Licensed products become more expensive, Some farmers who will get no state subsidy may go bankrupt.
Economic Scenarios.The economic scenario cross for Russia A.D. 2020 is based on two uncertainty axes. One concerns whether Russia evolves towards a market economy (free enterprise) or whether it evolves towards a planned economy.The Russia of 2020 has a working liberal economic system, but it has failed to develop a differentiated production and service economy. The raw material-domi-nated industrial complex still constitutes a substantial part of the Russian economy. Russia is hence very sensitive to fluctuations in global raw materials prices. In times of global recession the Russian economy is weak and dependent, and in global boom periods the Russian economy booms.
2nd Economic Scenario: New Economic Superpower. In this scenario, Russia has grown into a heavyweight in the global economy by 2020. Russia contributes strongly to globalization and is clearly part of international business life. Many Russian companies are players on the global scene. The Russian economy is very dynamic and has many participants. The former economic structure dominated by the raw materials sector has been replaced by a more diversified economic and industrial structure. More and more small and medium-sized private companies crop up.
3rd Economic Scenario: 2nd World In this economic scenario, the Russia of 2020 is characterised by government interference with the economy. Not the same interference that was common during the Soviet era, but still with some of the same signs. The Russian eco-nomy is still based on raw materials, and only feeble developments have been made towards a more differentiated production and service economy. The Russian economy is growing very slowly, almost not at all. Russia’s business life is dominated by great oligopolies, and there are growing internal inequities and lopsided economic growth. Bureaucracy, political cronyism, and corruption are basic facts of life.
4th Economic Scenario: New Soviet It’s Russia in the year 2020. Russia has developed a differentiated production and service economy and its dependency on raw materials has eased. There is considerable government interference with the economy. This interference has resulted in massive economic planning, and several sectors are protected by tariff walls, subsidies, and other government measures. Russia is trying out an industrialization strategy based on import-substituting industrialization in order to achieve complete independence. The goal is to create a combination of import-substituting industrialization and export-oriented industrialization. However, the attempt is not succeeding too well, and Russia is at a crossroad be-tween protectionism and dependency on imports.
3 models of economics:Australian model,Mexican model,Nigerian model.Australian model, Involves diversifying the economy while preserving the institutions of modern European society.Suggestions for Russia: 1.high or average growth rate of GDP2.significant levels of foreign investment3.increase productivity.Mexican model. Mexican model is based on a market economy dominated by oil and gas sectorSuggestions for Russia:1.high rates of economic growth2.moderate development of diversification.Nigerian model. Nigerian model assumes a low diversification, the economy is based on the weak political institutions.
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