Elements and models of a Decision-making Process

 

We all make decisions all the time. Some are small; some will have ramifications throughout our lives. Sometimes we make snap judgments that in retrospect seem wise. Other times we carefully weigh the pros and cons but are betrayed by fate. Often the most important decisions are nondecisions: we put things off, choose to ignore problems, or to avoid situations or people and later discover that inaction has consequences just as important as those resulting from action.

 

Four processes of decision-making

Whether small or large, short- or long-term, studied or impulsive, decision-making involves four major elements: problem definition, information search, choice, and evaluation. They are not sequential, they occur simultaneously. And it is often difficult to identify when a decision process begins and ends as most important choices are ongoing.

Problem definition

The first step in defining a problem is recognizing that it exists.

Then, problems are plentiful; attention is scare. Selecting a problem for attention and placing it on the policy agenda is the most important element in policy making. When a problem is given attention, it gains focus and takes shape.

How a problem is defined affects how it is addressed. The problem of the homeless is a good example. The people without home have always been with us. Most often they have been seen as people who because of their own weaknesses could not find work and afford homes. They were dismissed as drunks and drifters. So defined, the homeless remained a problem in the background – a problem for the Salvation Army, not the government. But as their number grew, we began to take a closer look. We saw individuals discharged from mental institutions, the unemployed whose benefits had expired, and families unable to afford decent home. And we started seeing “the homeless” as people in desperate situations. This change in our perception altered the decision process. Homelessness is now a focus of policy debate.

Information search

When we are only vaguely aware that a problem exists, our first step is often to learn more about it, and this learning is an important step in the decision-making. Acid rain is a good example. First in Europe and then in North America, people noticed that trees were dying, and a few scientists began to ask why. Pollution and changes in climate were explored. Out of this active search for information the problem gained definition: air pollution is killing trees. Then, the solutions were considered. Reducing acid rains requires costly reduction in pollution created in regions often at great distance from the dying trees. Thus, the information defined the nature of the policy-making.

Information has always been central to governing, and governments are primary sponsors of research both in the sciences and humanities. Such research is driven by the interests of scholars and may not have immediate relevance to policy debate. But it may have important policy implications. For example, advances in lasers and genetic engineering influence defense and social policy in ways unanticipated by scientists or their government sponsors.

 

Choice

As problems are defined and information about problems and outcomes is examined, choices emerge. Weighing options and selecting are the most visible decision-making processes.

Sometimes choices are difficult and taking decisions is very hard, especially when choices are not clear and their results are unpredictable. Should we negotiate with terrorists? Do we want to save the lives of hostages, as family members prefer, or do we want to eliminate any incentive for future terrorism?

The selection process does not necessarily require reasoned judgments; the compromises of group decision-making often produce results that only few individuals prefer; satisfying single interests often means ignoring the interests of others.

Evaluation

Decisions do not end with choices among alternatives. Decision-making involves evaluating the effects and actions. Evaluation may be formal (an official study of the results produced by a new government program) or informal (scanning the news, talking to colleagues).

Whether formal or informal, evaluation is another form of information gathering after the choice.

The distinction between information search and evaluation is arbitrary. Before decision makers reach conclusions, most try to anticipate outcomes.

The most difficult aspect of evaluating choices is establishing the criteria. The most common criterion is the result – if things turn out well we feel that we made the right choice. But in this case we may confuse good luck with good decision-making (consider the decision to have a surgery: all surgery involves risk, and if a person chooses to take the very slight risk to remove a small tumor and dies during surgery, was the decision wrong?). Results are not universal criteria for the quality of a decision. The evaluation of any decision-making must involve looking at results and processes as well as the situation faced by decision makers.

 

Models of decision-making

There is no right or wrong way to make decisions. Sometimes cautious deliberation is the best path; at other times risks are required. But scholars speak about two broad categories of models of decision-making: rational and nonrational models.

Rational decisions are choices based on judgment of preferences and outcomes. They are not always turn out best and they do not eliminate the possibility of failure. Sometimes the goal is so important that it is rational to choose an option with little promise of payoff. Opting for experimental surgery is a rational choice over a life of pain.

In nonrational models choices do not result from the deliberate balancing of pros and cons. These models share the assumption that the mix of rules and participants shape choices, and that decisions result from the varying (though not necessarily accidental) mix of ingredients. Most of governmental decisions are within these models. The decision process there is too complex to take into account multiple goals, alternatives and impacts of every alternative; the time required to take a decision is too short; the finances are too thin to provide long researches.

Taken to extremes, rational models reduce human judgment to computation, and nonrational models portray decision outcomes as the result of forces beyond individual control.

Both rational and nonrational models of the decision process are products of value-neutral social science. Values enter rational decision models only in the form of preferences, but they are generally defined in terms of self-interest. An emerging view of decision-making places a stronger emphasis on decisions as value statements.

 

Ex. 2. Read the text for understanding its main points and answer the following questions:

1) Some decisions we make have ramifications throughout our lives, don’t they? Why?

2) What four major elements does decision-making involve?

3) When does a problem gain focus and take shape?

4) Can information define the nature of policy-making? How?

5) What are the most visible decision-making processes?

6) What is the difference between formal and informal evaluation of a problem?

7) What do decision makers usually anticipate before they reach conclusions?

8) What is the most difficult aspect of evaluating choices? Why?

9) What are the two broad categories of decision-making models?

10) Within which models are most of governmental decisions? Why?

 

Ex. 3. Read the text for detailed information to complete the following sentences:

1) Sometimes we make snap … that in retrospect seem wise, other times we carefully … the pros and cons but are … by fate.

2) Decision … involves four major elements: problem … information …, …, and ….

3) When we are only vaguely … that a problem …, our first step is to learn more about it and this learning is an important step in decision ….

4) The first step in defining a problem is ….

5) Before decision makers reach …, most try to … outcomes.

6) Sometimes cautious … is the best path in decision-making, at other times ….

7) Rational … are choices based on … of preferences and outcomes.

8) Most of governmental decisions are within ….

 

Ex. 4. Answer the following questions:

1) Why are most important decisions non-decisions?

2) Why can inaction have as important consequences as those resulting from action?

3) Why are four major elements of decision-making not sequential?

4) How do changes in our perception alter the decision process?

5) Why are information search and learning the most important steps in decision-making? Give examples.

6) Why is the distinction between information search and evaluation arbitrary?

7) Why is establishing the criteria the most difficult aspect of evaluating choices?

8) Why aren’t results universal criteria for the quality of a decision?

9) Why are rational decisions said to be choices based on judgment of preferences and outcomes?

10) Why are nonrational decisions said to be choices which do not result from the deliberate balancing of pros and cons?

 

Language Study

 

Ex. 1. Match the words to their definitions:

1) choose 2) betray 3) desperate 4) weigh 5) judgment 6) occur 7) afford 8) anticipate 9) relevant 10) predict 11) aware 12) eliminate 13) put off 14) expire 15) benefit, v 16) alter

a) be unfaithful or deceive; b) to determine the heaviness of an object by using a scale; to consider carefully in one’s mind; c) the ability to make a wise decision or to form an opinion; d) rush, violent and without care; e) select or pick out; f) have enough money to spare; g) being conscious or mindful of sth.; h) related to matter at hand; i) tell beforehand; j) look forward; k) happen; to have sth. come to mind; l) get rid of; remove or leave out; m) to change; n) to be of profit; o) to come to an end; p) to delay.

 

Ex. 2. Give synonyms to the words given below in italics or briefly explain their meaning:

1) As problems are defined and information about problems is examined, choices emerge.

2) There is no right or wrong way to make decisions – sometimes cautious deliberation is the best path.

3) Often the most important decisions are non-decisions: we put things off, we choose to ignore problems, or to avoid situations or people.

4) Out of the active search for information the problem gained definition: air pollution is killing tress.

Advances in lasers and genetic engineering influence defense and social policy in ways unanticipated by scientists or their government sponsors.

5) Should we negotiate with terrorists or do we want to eliminate any incentive for future terrorism?

6) We saw the unemployed whose benefits had expired, and the families unable to afford decent homes.

7) We started seeing “the homeless” as people in desperate situations.

 

Ex. 3. Insert prepositions where necessary:

1) Often the most important decisions are non-decisions: we choose to ignore … problems, to avoid situations, to put things ….

2) The most important element in policy making is selecting a problem … attention and placing it … the policy agenda.

3) Decision-making involves … evaluating the effects and actions.

4) The distinction … information search and evaluation is arbitrary.

5) Decision makers try to anticipate … outcomes … they reach conclusions.

6) The result is the most common criterion – if things turn … well we feel we made the right choice.

7) Rational decisions are choices based … judgment of preferences and outcomes.

8) An emerging view of decision-making places a stronger emphasis … decisions as value statements.

 

Ex. 4. What’s the English for:

А 1) изменять, предавать 2) выбор 3) определение, дефиниция 4) оценивать 5) выгода, польза 6) закончиться, истечь (о сроках) 7) знающий, осведомленный 8) загрязнение 9) анализировать, исследовать 10) ослаблять, уменьшать

B 1) принятие решения 2) взвесить все «за» и «против» 3) отложить решение проблемы 4) поиск информации 5) происходить одновременно 6) изменить процесс 7) оказывать влияние на политику 8) предвидеть последствия 9) предусмотрительное обдумывание (осторожность) 10) разделять предположение

 

Pre-discussion

 

Ex. 1. Retell the text finishing the following sentences and adding 4-5 phrases of your own:

1) The text under discussion deals with the problem of …

2) The four major elements: …, …, … and … which decision-making involves are not sequential.

3) Problem definition and information search are the first steps in decision-making process. They mean recognizing that a problem exists and ….

4) Choices emerge when problems are defined and ….

5) The most difficult aspect of evaluating choices is ….

 

Ex. 2. Translate into English:

1) Не существует верных или неверных путей принятия решений. Иногда наилучший путь – тщательное обдумывание и взвешивание возможных вариантов, но бывают и другие ситуации, которые требуют от нас риска.

2) Иногда, принимая решение, мы тщательно взвешиваем все «за» и «против», но что-то не складывается, и мы понимаем, что сделали неверный выбор.

3) Определение проблемы, требующей решения, является первым элементом процесса принятия решения.

4) Когда мы осознали, что проблема существует, первое, что нам хочется сделать – узнать о ней как можно больше. Этот элемент процесса принятия решения называется поиском информации.

5) Сделать выбор и принять решение очень трудно. Часто результаты выбора непредсказуемы.

6) Прежде чем достичь согласия по поводу какой-либо проблемы, люди, принимающие решение, стараются предвидеть последствия и оценить их.

7) Большинство ученых полагают, что существуют две модели принятия решений – рациональная и нерациональная.

8) Часто случается так, что мы игнорируем проблему, стараемся не замечать ее, а затем обнаруживаем, что наша бездеятельность, так же как и деятельность, имеет положительные результаты.

Unit 4

 

Public Administration Personnel:

Role-Types

 

A. Vocabulary