Katrina devastation in port sulphur, LA.

When it comes to modeling the intensity of a particular storm, we tend to turn to less sophisticated statistical models. They compare basic information from the current storm, like location and time of year, to historic storm behavior, and spit out an averaged prediction. Cangialosi says a statistical model is "not trying to resolve and model what this storm is going to do, but it will tell us… a storm in this location and this environment, on average it will do this." They're quicker to run and don't require as much data or computational power.

It's still somewhat mysterious. We observe them, but we don't actually understand them to a large factor. There are more complex forecast models, and they are generally more accurate than their simple counterparts. "I'm amazed we can shove a whole world's worth of weather data into a computer," Mock says. "We couldn't do that 15 years ago." One drawback: they can take hours to run on a supercomputer. So when storms pop up or change quickly, researchers have to rely on quicker statistical models that can crunch the numbers fast.

Another reason we can't run more accurate, dynamic models on the intensity of hurricanes is that we don't entirely understand how hurricanes function. "It's still somewhat mysterious," Cangialosi says. "We observe them, but we don't actually understand them to a large factor."

For example, it was only recently that we learned that the wall around the hurricane's eye can deteriorate, and a new one will form around it. This can affect the intensity of the hurricane, but not always in the same way. Sometimes it makes the hurricane stronger, sometimes weaker. "Those are the things we can't quite model. We can't take into account all the dynamics of the eye wall," Mock says.

That's why hurricane forecasting still relies not just on a computer crunching numbers, but on human intervention - an actual forecaster who looks at the details of the storm and determines whether the model seems to be painting an accurate picture that makes sense based on the conditions. And that's why sometimes, a storm predicted to be a doozy barely seems like a blip in the radar, or vice versa.

We have begun to learn a little bit more about hurricane dynamics by flying planes into the eye of the storm. Besides sounding badass (INTO THE STORM, FOR SCIENCE!), sending aircraft straight to the source to drop weather balloons and sensors to collect data on aspects like wind direction, pressure, water vapor can help us learn more about how storms work.

9. Vocabulary. Translate word combinations into English.

циклоническая система ветров, движение воздуха разрушительной силы, ураганный ветер, грозовое облако, воронка, восходящие вихри, значительные разрушения, подавать штормовое предупреждение, безопасное место, прогнозирование возникновения стихийных бедствий.

10. Grammar revision. Translate the sentences into English.

1. Каждому стихийному бедствию присущи свои особенности, характер поражений, объем и масштабы разрушений, величина бедствий и человеческих жертв.

2. Одна из главных проблем, которая выходит сегодня на первый план - правильное прогнозирование возникновения и развития стихийных бедствий, заблаговременное предупреждение органов власти и населения о приближающейся опасности.

3.Заблаговременная информация дает возможность провести предупредительные работы, привести в готовность силы и средства, разъяснить людям правила поведения.

4. Все население должно быть готово к действиям в экстремальных ситуациях, к участию в работах по ликвидации стихийных бедствий, уметь владеть способами оказания первой медицинской помощи пострадавшим.

5. Знание причин возникновения и характера стихийных бедствий позволяет при заблаговременном принятии мер защиты, при разумном поведении населения в значительной мере снизить все виды потерь.

 

11. Reading. Read the text. What is the main idea of each paragraph of the text? Give the name to every paragraph.

Why Are Tornadoes So Hard To Predict?

People in the path of a tornado typically get only 10 minutes of warning. Why?

Sixteen minutes before a tornado touched down in Newcastle, Okla., yesterday, the U.S. Storm Prediction Center sent a warning to the area. That heads-up was longer than the average warning time of 8 to 10 minutes.

Why are tornado predictions so short-term, especially compared to other predictions we're familiar with, such as weather forecasts or hurricane warnings?

Hurricanes and blizzards show up on satellites days beforehand, but the conditions that favor tornados appear much more quickly and unexpectedly, the Associated Press reported in 2011. Tornadoes are just made of much finer print, so to speak. Their paths are smaller and they last for shorter periods of time, so predicting any particular tornado requires a fine-grain understanding that's more difficult for scientists.

Instead, the Storm Prediction Center issues tornado watches hours ahead of time that cover very broad areas. In 2011, the Associated Press reported on a watch that included 14 states.

The Storm Prediction Center looks for patterns in temperature and wind flow that create certain levels of moisture, instability, lift and wind shear, according to the center's extensive frequently asked questions page. Even then, its predictions may be uncertain because tornado conditions don't always look the same. A number of different scenarios can result in tornados, while similar scenarios may not always produce tornados. Slight changes that meteorologists can't currently measure may tip a thunderstorm to form a tornado—or not, Storm Prediction Center warning coordinator Greg Garbin told Scientific American in 2011.

Researchers are now working on forecasts that apply to areas smaller than a state, but larger than a county, Garbin said. With future improvements, meteorologists could get about an hour's warning on tornados, but not much more. Researchers just can't read the fine print that closely.

Comprehension check:

A) Are the following statements true or false?

1. The conditions that favor tornados appear much more quickly and unexpectedly compared to those of hurricanes and blizzards.

2. People in the path of a tornado typically get 30 minutes of warning.

3. Predictions of tornado may be uncertain because tornado conditions don't always look the same.

4. With future improvements, meteorologists could get about an hour's warning on tornados, but not much more.

5. Predicting any particular tornado requires a fine-grain understanding that's not so difficult for scientists.

B) Put the words given below into the gaps.

1. Sixteen minutes before a tornado touched down in Newcastle, Okla., yesterday, the U.S. Storm Prediction Center sent ……….. to the area.

2. Hurricanes and blizzards show up on ……….. days beforehand.

3. Tornado ………. are smaller and they last for shorter periods of time.

4. The Storm Prediction Center looks for patterns in temperature and ……… that create certain levels of moisture, ………, lift and wind ……….

5. Slight changes that meteorologists can't ……… measure may tip a thunderstorm to form a tornado.

6. Researchers are now working on ………. that apply to areas smaller than a state, but larger than a county.

Words to put into gaps: paths, a warning, wind flow, currently, shear, satellites, instability, forecasts.

12. Reading. Put the parts of the text into the right order. Give the main idea of the text.

Hurricane Sandy: Wind Shear

(1) High wind shear can remove some of the heat being released by a hurricane or blow the top portion of the hurricane away from the bottom, causing its vortex to tilt. Such a tilt will make the hurricane, which runs on heat, less efficient.

(2) During hurricanes, the vertical measurement is more important. Our active weather is confined between the Earth's surface and the top of the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere. Hurricanes, which fill this entire vertical space, are steered by average wind.

(3) Reports said that though Hurricane Sandy battled high wind shear on Saturday, wind shear is forecasted to decline and the hurricane may strengthen.

(4) Wind shear usually comes up when you talk about how a hurricane weakens. The term refers to changes in wind speed or direction over a short distance and can be measured either vertically or horizontally.

 

13. Grammar revision. Translate sentences into Russian paying attention to the underlined grammar structures.

1. It was in this environment that the WMO Information System initiative was developed.

2. In addition to being gathered in real time, radar measurements give a more complete analysis of the boundary layer by sending out vertical and horizontal impulses to log if snow, rain or insects are present.

3. If the weight of mercury is less than the atmospheric pressure, the mercury level in the glass tube will rise (high pressure).

4. Air flow in a high pressure system is opposite that of a low pressure system.

5. The more closely the isobars are spaced together, the stronger the pressure change (pressure gradient) is over a distance.

6. Pressure, much like convection, is an important meteorological principle that is at the root of large-scale weather systems as diverse as hurricanes and bitter cold outbreaks.
7. It is the first time that lightning has been included in the official WMO Archive of Weather and Climate Extremes, which is maintained by the WMO Commission for Climatology and documents details of records for heat, cold, wind speed, rainfall and other events.

8. Having established that heat waves have grown, Skinner is now looking ahead, understanding what kind of heat waves we can expect twenty years hence, and pinpointing which parts of the world are most vulnerable.

9. After quantifying the contribution of each environmental factor to tropical cyclone intensity, they determined that the increase in the proportion of intense typhoons was largely due to a deepening of the ocean mixed layer.

10. The power of a hurricane is rated on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale and has five categories, category 5 being the most intense.

11. The same storm would be called a typhoon if it were to form in the north-west Pacific and would then adhere to a slightly different intensity scale to that of hurricanes.

12. A super-typhoon would be classed as a severe hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale (equivalent to a category 3 hurricane).

Speaking and Writing.

Task 1. Imagine yourself to be a journalist of the Guardian who was given the task to make a report about the hurricane that has recently hit the coast of the USA. Use the ideas from the texts of Unit 2.

Task 2. All major hurricanes are given human names (for example Katrina). Choose 3 hurricanes of this kind and make a little report about each of them giving interesting facts and figures.

 

Содержание

	Стр.
введение	2
Unit 1. Speaking about your course of study	3
Unit 2. Career in Ecology and Meteorology	9
ECOLOGY and TECHNOSPHERE SAFETY	15
Unit 3. Climate change	15
Unit 4. Natural resources	23
Unit 5. Mineral resources and energy today and tomorrow	29
Unit 6. Nuclear energy	37
Unit 7. Natural gas	45
Unit 8. Alternative energy sources	51
Unit 9. Waste management	64
Unit 10. Conservation of biodiversity	74
METEOROLOGY	80
Unit 11. Atmospheric processes and the weather. Weather forecast	80
Unit 12.  Types of natural disasters and their consequences	93
Unit 13.  Severe weather forecasting, early warning systems and risk reduction	105