The Role of NMHSs (National Meteorological and Hydrological Services) in Early Warning and Disaster Management

The role of NMHSs in early warning and disaster risk management is critical since so many natural hazards, which cause floods, heat waves, cold waves, wind storms, wildfires, droughts, landslides, epidemics and the resulting social and economic losses are weather-related and likely to become more common due to climate change. A systematic approach to managing the “risks” associated with disasters can prevent or mitigate their impact. The process must consider the likely effects of natural hazards and the measures by which they can be minimized.

The concept of disaster risk is used to describe the likelihood of harmful consequences arising from the interaction of natural hazards and the community. Two elements are essential in the formulation of disaster risk: the probability of occurrence of a hazard, and the vulnerability of the community to that hazard.

Risk = Hazard Probability x Vulnerability

A closer look at the nature of hazards and the notions of vulnerability allows for a better and more comprehensive understanding of the challenges posed by disaster mitigation:

A) Nature of hazard. By seeking to understand hazards of the past, monitoring of the present, and prediction of the future, a community or public authority is poised to minimize the risk of a disaster. The NMHSs play a key role in this aspect of risk management of weather-related natural disasters. 

B) Notions of Vulnerability. The community vulnerability is the susceptibility and resilience of the community and environment to natural hazards. Different population segments can be exposed to greater relative risks because of their social and economic conditions. Reducing disaster vulnerability requires increasing knowledge about the likelihood, consequences, imminence and presence of natural hazards, and empowering individuals, communities and public authorities with that knowledge to lower the risk before severe weather events occur, and to respond effectively immediately afterwards.

There must be a sound scientific basis for predicting and forecasting hazards and reliable forecasting and warning systems that operate 24 hours a day. Continuous monitoring of hazard parameters and precursors is essential to generate accurate warnings in a timely fashion. Warning services for different hazards should be coordinated where possible to gain the benefit of shared institutional, procedural and communication networks.

Warnings must reach those at risk. Clear messages containing simple, useful information are critical to enable proper responses that will help safeguard lives and livelihoods. Regional, national and community level communication systems must be pre-identified and appropriate authoritative voices established. The use of multiple communication channels is necessary to ensure as many people as possible are warned, to avoid failure of any one channel, and to reinforce the warning message.

5. Grammar. Translate the sentences and define the function of the underlined infinitive.

1. A warning system must empower individuals, communities and businesses to respond timely and appropriately to hazards in order to reduce the risk of death, injury, property loss and damage.

 

2. Warnings must get the message across and stimulate those at risk to take action.

 

3. To identify and evaluate the weather information needs of the users, NMHSs need to build relationships and work in partnership with users in both the public and private sectors.

 

4. Some meteorologists, like forensic or consulting meteorologists, are hired for their expertise in the field to help other professionals.

 

5. If the hurricane climatology and the Multi-Decadal Mode prove to be reliable guides, we may expect the first decade or two of the 21^st Century to produce as many of the most damaging major hurricanes annually as the last 5 years have.

 

6. Sometimes, as happened in Hurricane Emily of 1993, models and observations combine to give forecasters particularly clear insight into the meteorological situation, so that they can exclude large sections of coastline, perhaps hundreds of miles long, from the warning area and save the economy as much as $100M.

 

7. Since the number of air molecules above the surface increases, there are more molecules to exert a force on that surface.

 

8. The wavelike formation observed in the cloud base was found to be associated with atmospheric waves being channelled along the cloud base.

 

9. The term dust storm is more likely to be used when finer particles are blown long distances, especially when the dust storm affects urban areas.

10. The purpose of preparing and delivering services to users is to enable them to make better decisions by using weather and climate information.

6. Reading. Look through the text (not more than 3 min.) and give the main idea.