Tendencies of development of the concrete international market

According to the vice-president of Strategy Analytics Devid Kerr, for the last seven years the market underwent drama changes and grew by 12 times (from 80 million "clever" devices in 2006 to 950 million in the 2013th). Key players, – so changed also, the share of dominating Android OS in the market began to correspond to a share of OS Symbian holding similar position in 2006, thus to Windows and Blackberry OS OS, mainly, grew rates, below the average market. At the same time Apple iOS, having created new market model and having introduced a set of innovations, still makes less than 1/5 all sold smartphones of 2013. Today the pure market leader is Android OS though he starts conceding the share to other operating systems in the separate markets – for example, recently let out OS Blackberry 10, and also Mozilla OS, Tizen OS etc. has good chances.

The executive director of the Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) direction of the Strategy Analytics company Neyl Mouston (Neil Mawston), in turn, confirms that Android OS starts giving in, while, however, only in the USA. "The termination of growth of a share of Android OS in the most significant market of a planet – in the USA became a key event of 2012. As a rule, everything that occurs there, then after a while repeats and in other markets – Europe, Asia etc. The market of the USA was the first where Android OS of the beginnings grow and found world value, the USA became also the first market where Android OS stopped the growth and its falling began. The tendency which has begun there, will inevitably come and to all other markets therefore a key task for Google is longer preservation of existing positive dynamics in other markets. Respectively, producers already now need to think how to live and on what to stake in post-Android world. Here the most perspective Windows Phone and Chrome OS, OS because of already built multiscreen ecosystem, and also in a low price segment – Mozilla OS" seem, – Neyl Mouston noted. (Picture 3)

Thus world deliveries of mobile devices, by Strategy Analytics estimates, made 1,6 billion units in 2012, thus, its growth did not exceed 1% because of global economic instability. Forecasts for 2013 is growth of the market by 3%. The countries of South East Asia, and first of all China became the main driver of growth of the market of smartphones. In all other markets stagnation (to-10% in North America) was observed. For 2012 China came out on top on sales volumes of devices in the world while the USA reserved only leadership in profitability. Thus 2/3 all sales in the People's Republic of China are the share of local Chinese brands – Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Coolpad while Samsung, Apple and Nokia began to play a supporting role, trying to be focused on srednetsenovy and bonus segments. (Picture 4)

2012 generated an interesting and extremely indicative phenomenon of domination in the market of two players. It is very easy to track it on global operational revenue from each sold device. If at Apple following the results of 2012 it makes $224, and at Samsung of $44, all other players have this indicator 10 times less: at LG and HTC for $3, at Nokia – $1, and go further unprofitable RIM which loses $24 from each sold device, Motorola (-$26) and Sony (-$6). The exception makes only Sharp with positive profitability from each device in $13. Generally at the expense of the superincome of two players (68,2% and for Samsung of 30,2% of profit are the share of Apple) the indicator of average profitability on the market on one device makes $34. (Picture 5)

At the same time the market of ordinary phones still very much we mean, it, of course, not so высокодоходен as the market of smartphones, but nevertheless in 2012 just like that from accounts it is impossible to write off 900 million sold "tubes". In 2013 this business will not lose the value – according to forecasts of Strategy Analytics, such phones about 700 million units will be sold. At the same time at the expense of gradual replacement of these "tubes" by the budgetary smartphones also there will be growth of the market of smartphones. Therefore, according to Mr. Mouston, already soon we will become witnesses of global transfer of R&D- activity of world grandees and attention of producers of devices there that next billion is called, – that is in developing states where the following wave of connections of mobile users is expected and there is a mass transition from use of "usual tubes" to cheap smartphones of initial level. First of all, it is Latin America (acceptance by the local leader of Telefonica of the Mozilla operating system is extremely indicative), China (in 2012 the country became the leading market on the volume of sold smartphones in the world, having outstripped the USA), India and Asia (high growth rates are observed, first of all, in an ecosystem of application developers), and also Africa (especially the countries located to the south of Sahara). (Picture 6)

As for the market of smartphones which it was sold in 2012 of 700 million units, here LTE support became the main driver of growth. And "fight for LTE" was won by two vendors – Samsung and Apple to which share over 70% of deliveries of devices with LTE support (65% in 2013) fell. It is connected with a variety of models, scales of business and the adjusted network of distribution that does almost impossible approach to them though someone from competitors. "Therefore we advise to the remained players already now to rely on LTE-Advanced (true 4G) and perspective technology and to save up competences and practical experience with technology that in the near future to leave from Samsung and Apple domination. Here it is necessary to remember that change of market leaders happens constantly: if in 2G Motorola, in 3G – Nokia, now 4G – Samsung and Apple dominated, the following wave will be just connected with LTE-Advanced and it is necessary for 2014", – the executive director of Strategy Analytics Neyl Mouston makes comments. (Picture 7)

Besides, according to him, great value in 2013 NFC support will have. Already now practically all new expensive models support this technology, this trend will accrue only, but this year it is expected also growth of the ecosystem of NFC. Bigger value would be had by Apple support that at once would open for technology the market of the USA most developed for today and would accelerate its global advance. However NFC ecosystem, let and less, than it was expected, will continue the growth, it will occur, first of all, at the expense of electronic payments (Mobile Wallet), transport applications, the sphere of safety, advertizing and impressive opportunities of use in a mass retail. In the future the sphere of use of NFC will extend, especially after in the market there will be a critical mass of users and devices with support of this technology, – if in their 2012 there were about 160 million, by 2017 in Strategy Analytics predict their number in 1,1 billion devices. (Picture 8)

Thus, in Strategy Analytics give three advice to producers for 2013: to concentrate on advancing development of the LTE-Advanced technology for which the market will ripen by 2014, to think of an era of post-Android and to begin an alternative choice (Windows Phone, Mozilla OS), and also to gain competences of NFC. On the other hand, the vice-president of Strategy Analytics Devid Kerr (David Kerr) urges to think also and over factors which would be capable to differentiate chosen mobile OS from other similar ecosystems in a form factor, marketing, appendices, the user experience. From there is a set of various factors which in aggregate are not inherent yet in any one OS: support of operators and global distribution through their networks, applications programming and improvement of the user experience, support of an ecosystem of HTML5, the correct price policy for each market, the corresponding marketing strategy etc. (Picture 9)

In this regard Mr. Kerr dared to describe in more detail the new mobile OS, in aggregate capable to replace a market niche at decrease in an existing share of Android OS. According to him, one of such alternatives new Blackberry OS 10 by means of which the company will be able to hold a set traditionally loyal to a brand of clients in Great Britain, Canada, Algeria, Indonesia is capable to become, Malaysia etc. Besides, Blackberry carried out very much a lot of work with application developers. Therefore in Strategy Analytics believe that BlackBerry will be capable to hold existing corporate clients, especially in such critical for safety of information spheres, as finance, the state structures etc. As a whole fight for existing base in 70 million owners of Blackberry devices of the previous models becomes defining direction of development for the company in the next 2 – 3 years. For platform growth in the mass market the company has to bring much more often to the market the most various models of smartphones and tablets. (Picture 10)

As for announced on MWC 2013 Mozilla OS, the price category of these smartphones will be at the level of devices on Android OS of initial level, but advantage of Mozilla OS consists in mass support from mobile network operators (operator billing, the built-in branded services etc.). Characteristics on components for Mozilla OS smartphones will be the following: for initial level it is the processor of 1 GHz from Qualcomm, the HVGA screen on 2,5 inches and a chamber on 3 Megapixels; for a srednetsenovy segment it is the two-nuclear processor of 1,2 GHz, the qHD IPS display with a diagonal 4,3 inches, a chamber on 8 Megapixels. (Picture 11)

"Thus the main destination of smartphones on Mozilla OS is simple Internet access in use, a brauzing and online services, including for the vertical markets – the educations, remote medical diagnostics etc. But I do not think that such devices will intend for entertainments and to have such opportunities. This year we predict that in 2013 about 750 million usual "tubes" – in very many countries of the world penetration of smartphones lower than 10% will be still sold. Therefore desire of operators to give to these subscribers the subsidized cheap smartphones for 3 – 5 euros a month quite clearly. Just in this area Mozilla OS" has to shoot, – the vice-president of Strategy Analytics Devid Kerr commented in conclusion of a meeting. (Picture 12)

Conclusion

Smartphones – one of the most fast-growing segments of the world IT market. New records of growth of sales of "clever phones", their productivity are annually fixed, diagonals of screens, the list of supported technologies and standards increase. The Huawei company which has borrowed following the results of 4 quarters 2012 the third place in the world the market on smartphones, offers buyers only the most modern and functional devices. Today, on the example of four latest Huawei models, I would like wanted to sum up, having talked how the market of smartphones develops, and what tendencies and technologies will be actual soon.

The peak of growth of popularity of smartphones fell on 2010-2011 and was caused by an exit of free of charge extended Google of mobile Android OS. Many vendors were focused only on release of devices, and thanks to decrease in expenses of producers on system development, soon smartphones could be compared at the prices to ordinary mobile phones, and users received the most various devices with access to huge shop of appendices and games.

Today the share of Android in the different countries fluctuates from 50 to 70%. At recalculation of total of the sold mobile phones, the share of Android makes 34%. The system is priority and for the Huawei company – on the last Android 4.1 Jelly Bean version there is a majority of our products.

Totally for 2012 it was realized 438,1 million mobile phones, the share of smartphones from which total made 216,5 million. Following the results of 4 quarters 2012, according to the Canalys company, sales of mobile phones practically did not change in comparison with the similar period of last year, but sales of smartphones grew by 37%. In turn the total amount of sales of Huawei for 2012, according to the audited data, made 32 million devices.

Already for the first quarter of the current year "clever phones" again showed a steady growth – the analytical company TrendForce published data according to which in the first quarter 2013 216,4 million smartphones were realized that is 9,4% more than indicators of the previous reporting period. According to IDC, for the first quarter 2013 for the first time in the history world sales of smartphones exceeded sales of mobile phones.

How the market of mobile phones in recent years changed? First, various niches and segments which were distinctly traced five years ago disappeared. The monoblock format with the touch display practically in all front panel forced out once popular form factors – folding beds, sliders, rotators. Secondly, borders between devices for the advanced users, grandmothers, housewives, businessmen were practically erased. Thanks to big touch screens, a gain in productivity of smartphones in all price segments and to the simplest interface can use them today practically all. Actually, the smartphone choice is reduced today to a choice of a diagonal of the screen - in many respects the further model of use depends on it.

It is obvious that the good smartphone is impossible without the good screen and convenient user the interface. Problem of "iron" – to ensure smooth functioning of the menu, the browser, 3D - games and heavy video. Huawei provides the to users smartphones with qualitative IPS matrixes, the screens reacting to pressing in gloves, and an additional cover of Emotion UI. The firm cover of Emotion includes completely adjusted desktop, simple management of a chamber and profiles, and also training the management for novice users.

Indicators of mobile displays increase annually almost twice. Still a year ago HD permission was considered as the maximum. In the current year flagman smartphones are equipped with Full HD displays (1920х1080). Necessary attributes of the big screen – a natural color rendition, an IPS matrix, high density of pixels per inch (PPI). The display with Full HD permission in a line of Huawei smartphones received фламан Ascend D2, for today it technically the strongest office of the company. In it, except four nuclear processors with a clock frequency of 1.5 GHz, we used the magnificent 5-inch TFT IPS display + with the resolution of 1920х1080 points (Full HD) and record density of pixels per inch - 443ppi.

Displays of smartphones increase not only resolution and ppi indicators, but also diagonals. With growth of popularity of tablets by one of the demanded directions there were devices with a diagonal of screens more than 5 inches, so-called "phablet", – the smartphones which are coming most nearer by opportunities and characteristics to tablets, but still convenient as phone.

Huawei Ascend Mate – one of the biggest smartphones in the world, a diagonal of its IPS display with the HD permission makes 6.1 inches. Four nuclear processor is responsible for productivity with a clock frequency of 1.5 GHz and 2 GB of random access memory. In view of desire of the user as seldom as possible to address to the charger and not to choose between functionality and operating time, we supplied Ascend Mate with the accumulator with a capacity of 4050 мАч. Productivity and operating time did not go to damage to design and convenience of use – thickness of this device less than 10 mm.

Growth of a diagonal of the screen and its resolution was directly reflected and in what processors began to be installed in smartphones. In 2013 four nuclear processor became norm, it is installed even in devices of average price category. Used processors in the majority are single-crystal systems. The crystal includes kernels with the lowered consumption of energy, graphic system and controlers of radio of interfaces (LTE, NFC). Similar configuration allowed to achieve high efficiency at preservation of such important parameters as compactness and low cost.

Functional and productive devices became cheaper. Even in a mass segment of Huawei smartphones there are inexpensive models with worthy characteristics. The Honor 2 smartphone, except four nuclear chips with a clock frequency of 1,4 GHz and 1 GB of random access memory, is supplied with the IPS display with the HD permission and a diagonal 4,5 inches. In the Russian retail of Honor 2 it is available at the price less than 14 000 rubles.

According to experts, 2013 has to become "year of LTE" and to play an important role in growth of the market of the user equipment of the fourth generation owe smartphones. So the increase in demand at LTE smartphones is expected more than three times. Huawei offers users the fastest in the world the Ascend P2 LTE smartphone supporting data transmission at a speed up to 150 Mbps and compatible to the LTE networks practically in all ranges (800/850/900/1800/2100/2600 MHz).

Development of the mobile industry is permanently connected with change of model of use of phone which gradually turns into the universal terminal for communications and entertainments. On turn there is a universal introduction of technologies of contactless payments. The NFC chip became today obligatory attribute of the modern smartphone, but in Russia time of contactless payments for the present did not come. At least some years for creation of uniform standards and infrastructure is required. Only recently Russian operators declared creation of cooperation management enterprise for the purpose of creation of a uniform platform for providing the NFC services.

In spite of the fact that the NFC technology while is on low start, according to forecasts of experts, in the next two years it is expected by big growth. So, by 2015 of 90% of airlines plan to start registration on flight via NFC chips in smartphones. Instead of a paper boarding pass you will be able to use the phone. For its part, Huawei as the company, the first let out the mobile phone with NFC and taking today leading positions in the market of mobile devices, tries not only to follow the outlined tendencies, but also to define them. Perhaps, it is the main tendencies of development of the market of smartphones.

Attachment

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Comments: Android OS share in the market of the USA for the first time in 2012 began to fall. In 2013 this tendency with some delay will start being shown and in other markets. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: 68,2% of operating profit of the global market of smartphones are the share of two companies – Apple and Samsung. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: Indicator of operational revenue from each sold device for various vendors for the end of 2012. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: All perspective zones of growth of the market of smartphones lie in developing states. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: "Fight for LTE" is lost to two leaders – Apple and Samsung. Vendors need to take the following step – to start to develop LTE-Advanced. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: The most perspective spheres of use of the NFC technology at the expense of which growth of its ecosystem is expected soon. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: Strong and weaknesses of possible alternatives of Android OS. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: Evolution of the market of smartphones for the last seven years. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: The most significant trends in the field of components for the market of smartphones of 2013. Strategy Analytics data

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Comments: Distribution of shares on mobile OS in the corporate and mass markets of smartphones for the end of 2012. Strategy Analytics data

References

1. http://www.strategyanalytics.com/

2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

3. http://www.mobileworldcongress.com/

4. http://www.apple.com/

5. http://www.samsung.com/

6. http://www.huawei.com/ru/

7. http://www.digitimes.com/

8. http://www.idc.com/